《2013E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY_-_CHINA_ELECTRONICS_SECTOR-2013-01-15.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2013E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY_-_CHINA_ELECTRONICS_SECTOR-2013-01-15.ppt（39页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、11-01,11-02,11-03,11-04,11-05,11-06,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,EquityResearchReport/SectorResearch/Electronics,15%,-15%,0%,-30%,A-share Elec-沪深300,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics SectorNew landscape for mob
2、ile smart ter-minals:change and opportunity25 Dec 2012OUTPERFORM(Reiterate)Investment Highlights,New landscape for mobile smart terminals in 2013E:four trends.Webelieve mobile smart terminals will remain the focus of investment in the nearfuture for the electronics industry.As Apples hardware advant
3、age rapidlydwindles,user experience and eco-system of Android steadily matures,andreference design plans significantly lower costs and shorten Rand 4)traditional PCs/NBs:pace of rebound projected to remain slow prior to2H13E.Opportunities from changes in parts and components.We believe the,CITIC Sec
4、urities ResearchAngus LinTel:021-68761849Email:Practicing license no:S1010512030001Performance relative to theindexA股电子元器件 S&P/CITIC 300tronics-45%-60%,investment opportunities in parts and components are closely linked to the,Source:,CITIC,Securities,Quantitative,supply chain.Taking four dimensions
5、 into account-import substitution,competition and supply-demand,pricing trends,earnings potential,we pre-dict trends and investment focus of key sub-sectors as follows:touch-screens:vertical integration and technology diversification is essentialto success,The Strong Will Endure;2)battery module:cle
6、ar trend of in-dustry migration,with the Mainland manufacturers replicating their Taiwancompetitors historical growth;3)camera module:affordable thou-sand-RMB smart phones continue to drive higher-pixel upgrades;4)acoustic module:Mainland manufacturers dominate;5)structural parts:in-stternational 1-
7、tier clients enable development leap.6)LED backlight:tabletdemand surge will lead to industry inflection point.Industry cycle and investment analysis:cyclical weak recovery,focuson growth stocks.In terms of semi-conductor cycle,industry inventory,andterminal shipment,our analysis indicates that this
8、 round of industry cycle issimilar to that in mid-2005,starting a weak recovery after recession,with thecycle of cyclical fluctuation changing from large cycle to small cycle.Cyclicalstocks may offer trading opportunity.Major growth stock have been tradingbelow 20 x PE.We believe the mid-to-long-ter
9、m growth rationale hasntchanged(product trends,industry migration,large clients),even though thegrowth stocks valuations are heading south in the overall market,the majorelectronic growth stocks may see significant abnormal returns in 2013E.Potential Risks.Raw material prices and exchange rate;macro
10、 economicdownturn;excess industry capacity.Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Investment Analysis System,8,8,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics SectorReiterate OUTPERFORM rating for the sector,recommend a combination of growth stock.Based onindustry cycle,growth pote
11、ntial of the supply chain,visibility of companies profit growth,and taking safetymargins into account,we recommend the following growth stocks for 2013E:O-Film Tech(002456)(Sam-sung,Amazon,domestic smart phones),Sunwoda(300207)(Amazon,domestic smart phones),EverwinPrecision(300115)(Apple,Samsung,dom
12、estic smart phones),Speed Wireless(300322)(Samsung,do-mestic smart phones),as well as key Apple suppliers such as Goertek(002241)and Desay Battery(000049).Earnings forecast,valuation,and investment ratings for major listed companies,Company,Stock Price(Rmb),11,EPS(Rmb)12E 13E,14E,11,PE(x)12E 13E,14E
13、,Rating,Desay Battery(000049)Goertek(002241)O-Film Tech(002456)Everwin Precision(300115)Sunwoda(300207)Speed Wireless(300322)Refond Optoelectronics(300241)Jufei Optoelectronics(300303),28.4335.7937.1222.9910.7416.4213.1011.15,0.87 0.98 1.500.62 1.07 1.680.11 1.71 2.300.62 0.80 1.250.34 0.36 0.610.39
14、 0.56 0.860.31 0.55 1.010.59 0.71 1.03,2.052.263.001.810.821.181.701.41,33583373732424219,2933222930292416,1921161818191311,141612131314,BUY(Initiation)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate)BUY(Reiterate),Source:Wind,CITIC Securities Quantitative Investm
15、ent Analysis System,closing prices as of 30th Nov,2012Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics Sector,Contents,New landscape for mobile smart terminals in 2013E.1,Mobile smart terminals remain the key focus of investment in electronics in
16、dustry.1Context behind the landscape of new mobile smart terminal.1,Trends and changes in mobile smart terminals.5,Trend I:Apple implements multi-product line strategy and eliminates Samsungcomponents.5Trend II:Samsung continues the offensive and will make breakthroughs in both smartphones and table
17、ts.7Trend III:Other Android terminal camps are catching up by leveraging on innovativebusiness model and emerging markets.9Trend IV:Slow recovery for traditional PC/NB.11,Component investment opportunities.11,Industry cycle analysis:weak recovery cycle,mobile smart terminal is a standout18,Semi cond
18、uctor is in a weak recovery cycle,usher in an era of shortened cycles.18Little pullback in inventory turnover.19Terminal shipment:Shipment slump across all segments except mobile smart terminals 20,Investment strategy and major recommendations.21,1H12 electronics sector performance.21Industry Rating
19、.22Industry Investment Strategy:growth and cyclical stocks will remain diverse,continue toallocate into growth stock.23,Potential risks.25,Key recommendations.25,Important disclaimer at the end of the report,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics Sector,Figures,Fig.1:Stock performance of
20、 tier 1 international technology companies.1,Fig.2:Market capitalization of top overseas semiconductor companies.1,Fig.3:Changing shipment trends in mobile phone screens ppi.2,Fig.4:iPhone share of high-res screens will slide.2,Fig.5:Sales volume of iOS,Android Apps.3,Fig.6:Android overtaking iOS in
21、 smart phones.3,Fig.7:Android catching up to iOS in the tablet segment.3,Fig.8:Global tablet shipment.3,Fig.9:Breakdown of global tablet market share.3,Fig.10:MTK and Qualcomm platform evolution map.5,Fig.11:iPhone sales volume.6,Fig.12:iPad sales volume.6,Fig.13:Breakdown of global smart phone ship
22、ment.8,Fig.14:Samsungs share of Android market.8,Fig.15:Samsung using key component advantage to fill the various segments withmultiple device models.8,Fig.16:Samsung,Apple and Microsoft advertising expense.8,Fig.17:Samsung,Apple and Microsoft advertising expense as proportion of operatingrevenue.8,
23、Fig.18:Samsung smart phone sales forecast.9,Fig.19:Samsung tablet sales forecast.9,Fig.20:Forecasted shipment volume of domestic smart phones by brand.10,Fig.21:Domestic 3G new user penetration has stabilized.10,Fig.22:Global market shares for camera module.16,Fig.23:Procurement cost of acoustic com
24、ponents for Apple mobile terminal products.17,Fig.24:Procurement cost of acoustic componentsfor Samsung mobile terminal products17,Fig.25:Connector industry migration trend.18,Fig.26:Procurement scale of Samsung mobile phones antennas.18,Fig.27:Global semiconductor sales and annual growth rates.19,F
25、ig.28:Adjusted global semiconductor sales and annual growth rates.19,Fig.29:North American semiconductor equipment B/B value.19,Fig.30:Inventory of PHLX semiconductor constituents.20,Important disclaimer at the end of the report,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics Sector,Fig.31:Invent
26、ory of A-share electronic companies.20,Fig.32:Global PC shipment.20,Fig.33:Global smart phone shipment.20,Fig.34:Global mobile phone shipment.21,Fig.35:LCD TV panel shipment.21,Fig.36:Main indices(YTD 2012).21,Fig.37:Quarterly returns for the electronics sector and the broad market.21,Fig.38:A-share
27、 2012 annual returns by sector(YTD).22,Fig.39:A-share electronics sector 2012 annual returns(YTD).22,Fig.40:A-share electronics industry profit growth.22,Fig.41:Taiwans electronics industry profit growth.22,Fig.42:Electronics industry market capitalization and PE range.23,Fig.43:Static PE of CSI 300
28、 constituency and electronics sector.23,Fig.44:Static PE premium of A-share electronics sector relative to CSI 300.23,Fig.45:Growth stocks and cyclical stocks continue to diverge.24,Important disclaimer at the end of the report,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics Sector,Tables,Table 1
29、:Hardware of iOS and Android flagship phones.2,Table 2:Growth forecast of the tablet market.4,Table 3:Major tablet computers in 2H12.4,Table 4:MTK and Qualcomm platforms start taking over both high and low end phonecategories.5,Table 5:Industry trend on components in the Apple supply chain.7,Table 6
30、:Industry trend on components in the Apple supply chain.7,Table 7:Companies linked to the Samsung supply chain.9,Table 8:Amazons supply chain and concept companies.10,Table 9:MTK smart phone chip shipment volume.10,Table 10:Smart phone component supply chain.11,Table 11:Global NB sales forecast.11,T
31、able 12:Multi-dimensional analysis of the mobile smart terminal component sub-sectors12,Table 13:Net margin of touch screen companies.13,Table 14:Projected trend for small size touch screen solutions.13,Table 15:Projected trend for mid-to-large size touch screen solutions.13,Table 16:Global cover le
32、ns shipment volume.14,Table 17:Unit procurement cost for small to medium size backlight source.15,Table 18:Battery industry in Taiwan and the mainland.15,Table 19:Specifications for mainstream domesticRmb1,000 priced smart phones in 201216,Table 20:Semiconductor annual growth rate cycle.19,Table 21:
33、Earnings forecast,valuation,and ratings of key listed companies.24,Table 22:Earnings forecast and valuation of Everwin Precision.26,Table 23:Earnings forecast and valuation for O-Film.27,Table 24:Earnings forecast and valuation for Sunwoda.28,Table 25:Earnings forecast and valuation for Desay Batter
34、y.29,Table 26:Earnings forecast and valuation of GoerTek.30,Important disclaimer at the end of the report,200801,200905,200909,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201205,200801,200905,200909,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,20120
35、1,201209,201209,微软,Intel,Apple,Amazon,1,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics SectorNew landscape for mobile smart terminals in 2013EMobile smart terminals remain the key focus of investment inelectronics industrySince 2008,the wave of mobile smart terminals gave rise to continually div
36、erging perfor-mance of stock prices of global Tier-1 tech companies Apple,Amazon,Samsung,Micro-soft,Intel,TSMC,and Qualcomm.We project that in both the short term and long term,thetrend of mobile smart terminals replacing desktop terminals as the dominant computingplatform is a foregone conclusion,a
37、nd as the penetration rate continues to rise,mobilesmart terminals will remain the focus of investment going forward.Fig.1:Stock performance of Tier 1 international technology companies,苹果,亚马逊,Samsung三星电子Electronic,Microsoft,英特尔,NDAQ,SOX,300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%Source:Bloomberg,CITIC Secur
38、ities ResearchFig.2:Market capitalization of top overseas semiconductor companies,160,US$bnbn USD,Intel英特尔,Qualcomm高通,MTK台积电,140120100806040200Source:Bloomberg,CITIC Securities ResearchContext behind the landscape of new mobile smart terminalContext 1:Apples hardware advantage rapidly dwindlesSince
39、the exponential growth of smart phones,Android phones have taken a strategy tomake up for shortcomings in operating system with advantages in hardware specs.Comparing hardware specs between flagship Apple and Android phones since 2010,wesee that iPhones hardware advantage steadily dwindling:when iPh
40、one4 was launched in2010,326 ppi screens were substantially superior to other flagship brands,but withiPhone5 debuting in 2012,Apples hardware specs were almost trailing the pack.GalaxyS3,which was launched earlier than iPhone5,has a 319ppi display that is virtually iden-Important disclaimer at the
41、end of the report,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2010,2011,iPhone share,2,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics Sectortical,while the HTC flagship products launched later which boast 440ppi and 1080ppiresolutions that were much superior to that of iPhone5.In terms of the DIGITIMES forecaston g
42、lobal mobile display ppi trends,the proportion of retina display screens will grow fur-ther in 2013E,while the share of iPhones will continue to decline.Table 1:Hardware of iOS and Android flagship phones,2010,2012,RepresentativePhone,iPhone4,Galaxy S,HTC Desire HD,iPhone5,Galaxy S3,HTC Droid DNA,Pi
43、cture,CPUDisplay SizeResolutionPPIDisplay MaterialTouch ScreenCamera,1GHz3.5 inch960 x640326IPSGG5MP,1GHz4 inch800 x480233Super AMOLEDOn-cell5MP,1GHz4.3 inch800 x480217SLCDGG8MP,Duo core 1GHz4 inch1136x640326IPSIn-cellFront 1.2MP,Back8MP,Quad Core 1.4GHz4.8 inch1280 x720319HD Super AMOLEDOn-cellFron
44、t 1.9MP,Back8MP,Quad Core1.5GHz5 inch1920 x1080440SLCDFront 2.1MP,Back8MP,Source:zol,CITIC Securities Research,Fig.3:Changing shipment trends in mobile,Fig.4:iPhone share of high-res screens will,phone screens ppi,slide,(Unit:mn units),150ppi,150-200ppi,200-300ppi,High-res Screen高精度面板,iPhone,iPhone占
45、比,300-400ppi,400ppi,1000,80%,300025002000150010005000,mn unit s,8006004002000,60%40%20%0%,2010 2011 2012E2013E2014E2015E,Source:DIGITIMES,CITIC Securities Research,Source:Gartner,DIGITIMES,CITIC Securities Research,Context II:Android user-experience and eco-system steadily maturesGoogle continuously
46、 improved the Android system in the past few years,and introducedAndroid 4.0 which also supports tablets.With the subsequent Android 4.1,Google rolledout Project Butter fundamental upgrade project(where 1)Android frame rate is boosted to60 fps;2)interface cache upgraded to triple-buffering;and 3)the
47、 CPU will fully and in-stantly respond to a touch of the screen),making the system buttery smooth and com-parable to iOS.Meanwhile,3rd party software sales volume has surged due to rapidgrowth in Android equipments market share.As of now,Android phone and tablet userexperience is close to that of iO
48、S.Important disclaimer at the end of the report,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,3Q12,Android 近iOS,iPad sales,iPad,market,Global tablet sales,3,2013E Annual Investment Strategy-China Electronics SectorFig.5:S
49、ales volume of iOS and Android Apps,iOSApp,Android App,80,10K units,万个706050403020100,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,Source:Mobile Statistics,CITIC Securities ResearchWe predict that Android tablet may well become the mobile smart terminal that beats ex-pectation the most in
50、2013E.In terms of sales volume trend,we see Android replicating itsfeat of overtaking iOS in smart phone market.As such,Apples significant dominance intablet market tends be shaken in 2013E.We project annual tablet shipment to stand at228 mn units in 2013E,up 70%from 2012.,Fig.6:Android overtaking i
