《RAILCARANDNGLUPDATE：USCHEMICALSHIPMENTS1.1%.ETHANEUP1CGAL0816.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《RAILCARANDNGLUPDATE：USCHEMICALSHIPMENTS1.1%.ETHANEUP1CGAL0816.ppt（22页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar and NGLUpdate,Date13 August 2012David Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments-1.1%.Ethaneup 1c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.down 1.1%,weekly loadings up 3.3%The 4-week
2、moving average of chemical railcar loadings declined 1.1%(reflecting a small tailwind from ethanol shipments,see Fig.1)in Week#31(ended August 4)vs.a 3.1%decrease the prior week.Chemical railcar loadingsrepresent 30%of total US chemical shipment tonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offer
3、ing a measurement of broader chemical industryactivity and demand trends.The more volatile measure of weekly loadingsincreased 3.3%YoY(versus a 0.7%decline in the prior week)and declined1.0%sequentially(vs.a 3.0%increase in the prior week).Ethane prices rose 1c/gal last week to 38c/gal(down 53%YTD)E
4、thane prices rose 1c/gal last week to 38c/gal.Spot ethylene margins remainedat robust levels(27.5c/lb)as spot ethylene prices increased 1c/lb last week,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst(+1)212 250-Ashland(ASH.N),USD72.90LyondellBasell(LYB.N),USD47.28Eastman Chemical(EMN
5、.N),USD54.54(GDP,Real YoY),to 49/lb.Flint Hills Port Arthur facility(1.9%of North American ethylene,2008,2009,2010,2011 2012E 2013E,capacity)remained offline due to a leak but is expected to restart shortly.Weexpect ethane prices to move modestly higher near-term,as there are noplanned maintenance o
6、utages on the US Gulf Coast until September.Additionally,propane prices are poised to rise amid increased propane export,USEurolandJapanG7,0.4%0.6%-0.7%0.3%,-2.6%-4.1%-5.3%-3.5%,3.0%1.9%4.1%2.9%,1.7%2.4%2.5%1.5%-0.5%0.3%-0.7%3.1%1.2%1.4%1.7%1.8%,capacity and heightened demand from crop drying.,Asiae
7、x-Japan 6.8%,5.7%,9.4%,7.3%6.4%6.9%,Acetic Acid:Global prices stabilize on supply constraints despite tepid demandUS acetic acid prices fell by a modest 0.5c/lb to 27.9c/lb in July,despite an,ChinaGlobal,9.0%2.7%,9.1%-0.9%,10.3%5.1%,9.2%7.9%8.4%3.6%3.2%3.5%,outage at Eastmans Sterling plant as deman
8、d has remained lackluster.Spotprices rose slightly to 22.3c/lb from 21.9c/lb.Global methanol feedstock pricesfell to$365/m.t.in July from$370/m.t.in June and are expected to increasemodestly to$370-$380/m.t.for the duration of Q3.In China,acetic acid pricesrose to 2,800RMB/m.t.in July vs 2,700RMB/m.
9、t.in June amid supplytightening as a number of producers operated at reduced rates.Chineseoperating rates were 60%.Demand for acetic acid derivatives in China havereportedly stabilized.In other news,Celanese prevailed in its trial with Southern Chemical Corp(SCC).SCC had filed a suit against Celanes
10、e,seeking$1.3B in damages andtermination of its methanol supply agreement with Celanese after alleging thatCelanese violated the terms of the 10-year contract by re-selling methanolsupplied under the deal.We view the victory as favorable for Celanese as theynow have assured supply of cheap methanol
11、through 2015,by which time theywill have built their own 1.3MM m.t.methanol facility in Clear Lake,TX.Weestimate the cash cost to produce methanol at Clear Lake would be$0.55/gal,comparable to the cost of$0.52/gal under the current agreement with SCC.We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sector
12、We prefer exposure to high quality companies within the chemicals sector:Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$80:Top Specialty idea),Eastman Chemicals(EMN,Buy,TP$63:Top Differentiated idea),Celanese(CE,Buy,TP$50)andLyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$55:Top Commodity idea)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those cur
13、rent at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports
14、.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/
15、04/2012.,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateTable Of ContentsUS Chemicals Railcar Data.5Key end market data.7End Market:Agriculture.8End Market:US Construction.10End Market:US Automotive&Electronics.12US macro indicators.13US output indicators.13US financial market indicators.15O
16、verseas macro indicators.16Sector Valuation&Risks.17,Error!Unknown documentproperty name 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateTable of ExhibitsFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended August 4,2012(Week#31).3Figure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production
17、 Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.4Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America).4Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).4Figure 5:US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).4Figure 6:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since
18、2005(000 of bpd).4Figure 7:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost.5Figure 8:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).5Figure 9:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).5Figure 10:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).6F
19、igure 11:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present).6Figure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).6Figure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).6Figure 14:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.7Figure 15:Cor
20、n stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970s.8Figure 16:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).8Figure 17:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).9Figure 18:Arable Land Per Capita.9Figure 19:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011).9Figure 20:Global Corn Acre
21、age by Region(millions of acres;2011).9Figure 21:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.10Figure 22:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residentialconstruction.10Figure 23:Household debt to asset ratio re
22、turning to trend levels.11Figure 24:Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.11Figure 25:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.11Figure 26:Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.11Figure 27:North American auto builds.12Figure 2
23、8:North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio.12Figure 29:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.13Figure 30:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.13Figure 31:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.14Figure 32:ECRI Leading I
24、ndex vs.Industrial Production.14Figure 33:Industrial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.14Figure 34:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.14Figure 35:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicators.14Figure 36:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.14Figure 37:Chemicals sector m
25、ultiples vs the yield curve.15Figure 38:A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.15Figure 39:Eurozone confidence indicators.16Figure 40:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.).16Figure 41:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.16Figure 1:Chemicals railcar
26、 loadings for week ended August 4,2012(Week#31),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,(1.1%)(3.1%)3.3%(0.7%)(1.33%),3.0%0.9%(1.0%)3.0%,Error!Unknown documentproperty name 3,A
27、pr-11,Aug-10,May-11,Aug-11,Apr-12,May-12,Mar-11,Feb-11,Sep-10,Nov-10,Dec-10,Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Mar-12,Feb-12,Oct-10,Jan-11,Jun-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Jul-11,Oct-10,Apr-11,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jun-11,Jan-12,Sep-10,Sep-11,Nov-10,Dec-10,Nov-11,Aug-10,Aug-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Jul-11,May-11,May-12,Feb-11,
28、Feb-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jul-12,May-1995,May-2000,May-2005,May-2010,Mar-1996,Mar-2001,Mar-2006,Mar-2011,Nov-1997,Nov-2002,Nov-2007,Jul-1999,Jul-2004,Sep-1998,Jan-1997,Sep-2003,Jan-2002,Sep-2008,Jan-2007,Jul-2009,Jan-2012,Jul-12,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene
29、 Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,16.220.337.229.047.169.121.7,+0.7+2.2+7.1+3.1+6.6+8.5+1.9,Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North
30、 America)c/gallon1009080706050403020Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 5:US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)50454035302520151050,Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon170160150140130120110100908070Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US ethane supply has
31、been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Ethane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West Southeast,Canada,Weighted Coprod Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,AverageSource:IHS ChemicalError!Unknown documentproperty name 4,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,Source:EIA,Deutsche
32、Bank Securities Inc.,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 7:Chemical distribution channels,by volume a
33、nd cost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical railcar loadings are down 1.5%Year to date,chemical railcar loadi
34、ngs are down approximately 1.5%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 8:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%
35、),Week#31,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 9:Four-week moving average of
36、weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#31,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American RailroadsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,2010,2011,2012,Error!Unknown documentproperty name 5,-,SequentialChange,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-
37、03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL Update,Figure 10:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%
38、(5%),Figure 11:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present)3432302826,(15%),24,Week#31,(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#31Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,22,Jan Feb Mar,Apr May Jun Jul,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec,2010,2011,2012,2010,2011,2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average
39、 of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American RailroadsError!Unknown documentproperty name 6,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Associ
40、ation of American RailroadsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,-,-,-,-,-,-,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateKey end market dataFigure 14:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthc
41、are 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”i
42、s onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal
43、 Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont
44、,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other industrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Ho
45、usehold furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Const
46、ruction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace 4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%
47、;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:C
48、ompany data,Deutsche Bank estimates,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Error!Unknown documentproperty name 7,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,12/13E,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateEnd Mark
49、et:AgricultureFigure 15:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:Deutsche Bank;USDAFigure 16:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDAError!Unknown documentproperty name 8,US Corn Acreage,US Soy Acreage,Deutsc
50、he Bank Securities Inc.,13 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL Update,Figure 17:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons)MM Tons,Figure 18:Arable Land Per CapitaAcres/Capita,1200,1090,1.2,1000800,970,10.8,1.02,0.75,600,600,0.6,0.55,400,410,0.4,0.44,0.41,220,200,0.2,0,1965,1980,2000,2020E,2030E,0,19
