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1、SERVICES: THE CASE OF POSTAL VERSUS EXPRESS DELIVERY SERVICESMichael G. Plummer1 Introduction In developed countries, services continue to constitute by far the largest share of national economies. For example, in the EU and the United States, approximately seventy and eighty percent, respectively,
2、of the economy falls under the general rubric of services. Services have also increased in importance in trade: in the year 2000, the share of services in total exports came to approximately 28 percent in the United States and 22 percent in the EU, with an average for the entire OECD coming to about
3、 19 percent. The same trend is observable in developing countries. During the development process, it is typical that: (1) agriculture falls as a percentage of GDP; (2) manufacturing first rises and then falls as the economy matures; but (3) services continue to grow throughout thedevelopment proces
4、s. As a percentage of trade, services exports of developing countries have risen from nine percent in 1980 (approximately half the share of developed countries) to about eighteen percent in 2000, on a par with that of the developed countries.Given the complicated and diverse nature of trade in servi
5、ces, liberalization at the global level can be more delicate and in many ways more difficult than trade in goods. Services can be high tech or low tech; inputs and/or final products; privately-provided or publicly-provided; and closely related to other areas, such as foreign direct investment(“FDI”)
6、. Many services areas, however, still include government involvement, and state prerogatives in certain areas are recognizedby the GATS. Moreover, trade in goods tends to be separate from FDI, though clearly there exist indirect links between trade and FDI. In the area of services, however, trade in
7、 services can be intricately linked to FDI; in some sectors, trade in services is impossible without FDI.In this chapter, we will focus on the need for services liberalization in the global economy, with a focus on developing countries. Moreover, we will use the process and complications associated
8、with the liberalization of express delivery services as a case study. This area is particularly interesting because: (a) it is an industry that has becomehighly international; (b) it has become an important input to a variety of emerging industries and a key ingredient in the competitiveness of firm
9、s and countries; (c) liberalization runs up against various competition policy issues, especially since it potentially affects private and public services5; and (d) it is exactly the type of industry where greater international access created through global agreements can produce major benefits to d
10、eveloped and developing countries alike.2 Services Liberalization and the Stakes for Economic DevelopmentA series of multilateral negotiations under the auspices of the GATT/WTO have been very successful in bringing down barriers to trade in manufactured goods. Developing country tariffs are, in gen
11、eral, much higher than in the developed world, but a large majority of developing countries has liberalized substantially trade in manufactures over the past fifteen years. In fact, most of the benefits that would accrue to global free trade would go to developing countries, according to various com
12、putational general equilibrium models that have been used to estimate such effects.The developing world is a different story. Agriculture continues to play an important role in the economy in general and in trade in particular in the least-developed countries and in many middle-income countries. In
13、order to be successful, the Doha Round will have to include at least some agricultural liberalization if the developing countries are going to agree to any accord. Still, as the development process unfolds, manufactures and, especially, services will become increasingly important. As noted above, se
14、rvices have been growing rapidly in importance and already constitute eighteen percent of developing-country exports.An association between rapid real economic growth and rapid growth in services trade does not mean that the latter caused the former. Such estimation is much more complicated; indeed,
15、 there exists a chicken-and-egg simultaneity problem here. However, regardless of which causes which, the development of the services sector is clearly an important part of the development process.The case for economic reform and liberalization is just too strong. Countries that have sustained econo
16、mic liberalization have prospered; the ones that have not prospered generally do not have outward-oriented policies to blame but rather other economic-contextual problems. It is hard to promote growthlet alone long-term developmentin an atmosphere of hyper-inflation or civil war. China has used econ
17、omic reform to transform the worlds most populous country from a least-developed, autarkic economy into an outward-oriented economic powerhouse; Vietnams reforms over the past fifteen years have cut poverty rates from one-half to one-fifth of the population. However, the process of economic liberali
18、zation in developing countries has generally left the services sector for last.3 The Case for Separating Postal from Express Delivery Services in GATSExpress delivery services constitute an interesting case study in service-sector liberalization. Their importance in the day-to-day activities of firm
19、s has increased substantially over the past fifteen years, as evidenced by rapid growth in the industry. Indeed, express delivery services have now become an essential “infrastructure” to doing business for many companies, as well as being an increasingly important service for individuals. Moreover,
20、 express delivery services are particularly necessary for multinationals and, hence, easy access to markets by express delivery providers is important in attracting FDI inflows, particularly in developing countries.A. The General ProblemThis is where the difficulty lies: express delivery services ar
21、e often considered a competitor to postal-service providers, which are almost invariably state-owned. Hence, liberalization in this area has been tricky, constrained by competing interests from bothdeveloped and developing countries and based on a misunderstanding of the market in which basic postal
22、 services are confused with express delivery services (we argue below that they are related but distinct). It will be argued in this chapter that existing realities emphasize the need to separate express delivery services from postal activities.Express delivery services need to be thoroughly differe
23、ntiated from traditional postal services, both because of the clear substantive differences between the two and the defined purview of GATS. Failure to do so will lead to mixing apples and oranges to the detriment of member states, be they developed or developing countries. It could also thwart prog
24、ress in Doha Agenda negotiations.B. Current ClassificationsExpress delivery services are currently classified by theWTOServices Classification List (W/120), under both “postal” and “courier” services. The only distinction between postal and courier services is that the former refer to public-sector
25、offered services, whereas the latter are private. Hence, it has to do with ownership rather than product, which is unusual in the area of international trade. This type of classification leads to a great deal of confusion of the issues, as well as complications regarding competition policy.The US Po
26、stal Service is an independent government organization that essentially has a monopoly on delivery of letters and other activities. In the United States, like other countries, the postal service area is dominated by domestic issues rather than international ones. But, while the United States and EU
27、have much at stake, failure to separate clearly USO-related from express-delivery services would be even more to the disadvantage of developing countries. Thus, in many ways, inclusion of express delivery services liberalization as a separate item from postal services under the Doha Trade Agenda wil
28、l be more important to developing than to developed countries.C. Existing Positions Regarding LiberalizationAs the WTO begins its preparations for the Doha Trade Agenda, express delivery services will likely play a greater role than they ever have in the past. The industry has been growing rapidly a
29、nd has become very international, even without GATS-related liberalization helping to foster it. At present, the situation does not lend itself to too much optimism, as a number of proposals that have been tabled thus far are conservative and will probably do little.Thus far, there have been a numbe
30、r of proposals tabled in the general area of postal and courier services, made by developing (MERCOSUR, Bolivia, and Hong Kong) and developed (EU, US, New Zealand) economies. One approach19 involves eliminating a distinction between postal services and courier services. Another approach defines expr
31、ess delivery services specifically as being separate from courier and postal services and having a single heading. Under this approach, then, member-states would be able to propose liberalization of express delivery services directly. This heading could then become part of a broader range of transpo
32、rtation activities in the globalization of the supply-chain management.4 SummaryThe salient results of this study can be summarized as follows:Services in general and trade in services in particular have become increasingly important to developed and developing countries, both as final products and
33、as inputs to other productive activities.The relationship between services and FDI (under mode 3) is extremely strong; hence, services liberalization is important as a means of attracting FDI, which has proven to be a key catalyst in the development process.Developing-country stakes are, therefore,
34、particularly high in global services liberalization, as efficient services are necessary in order to help these countries compete internationally and attract foreign firms as partners in the development process.GATS has taken on great significance in the 21st Century, particularly for developing cou
35、ntries, and successful liberalization of services under the Doha Trade Agenda will be extremely important in setting the course for the future.We have used the express delivery services case as an example of how this process plays out in the complicated political economy of services liberalization.
36、We have stressed that it is imperative to separate postal services from express delivery services, as they are separate sectors and reform of the latter can actually help promote the former through its complementarity and general enhancement of efficiency. It is in the interest of all parties to do
37、this. However, if a separation is not clearly made, progress in the Doha Round is unlikely, given political realities and probable misunderstandings.浅析邮政服务与快递服务的异同 Michael G. Plummer1引言在发达国家，服务业占国民经济的份额很大。例如，在欧盟和美国，经济发展过程中大约百分之七十、百分之八十都开展了服务专栏。贸易增加了服务的重要性，在2000年，大约28和22的服务来自于欧盟、美国的出口总，占整个经合组织的19%左右。
38、在发展中国家同样呈现这种趋势：农业占GDP的比重下降；制造业首次上升，但随着经济的日趋成熟又下降；在整个开发过程中，服务业水平不断提高；发展中国家的服务出口贸易的比例，已从1980年的9%(大约是发达国家一半的份额)上升到2000年的18%。待添加的隐藏文字内容3鉴于贸易的复杂性和多样化的特点，全球贸易自由化更加细腻。服务是提供高科技或低科技投入的产品，私人或公开提供密切相关的其他产品，如外国直接投资(“FDI”)。然而，很多服务领域，还包括政府的参与，或是某些领域的国家特权由“服务贸易总协定”确认。此外，在货物贸易方面，往往是外国直接投资，显然存在着贸易和外国直接投资之间不直接的联系。在服务
39、领域，贸易可以直接投资在某些行业，但是服务贸易是不可能由外国直接投资的。本文将专注于全球经济的贸易自由化，以发展中国家为研究重点，以快递服务自由化作为研究对象。快递服务领域特别有趣，因为它是：(1)一个高度国际化的产业;(2)已成为各种新兴产业，并是企业和国家竞争力的关键因素;(3)自由化的特点有可能影响私营部门和公共服务行业;(4)这种行业类型，可以通过全球协议可以对发达国家和发展中国家产生重大的影响，创造更大的国际接入点。2服务贸易自由化与经济发展的关系一系列关贸总协定在世贸组织的主持下，各国的多边谈判已经非常成功，从而降低了制成品的贸易壁垒。在一般情况下，发展中国家的关税比发达国家高得多
40、，但绝大多数的发展中国家在过去十五年开始大幅减少制成品贸易。事实上，全球自由贸易会给发展中国家带来更大的利益，根据各种计算和一般均衡模型已可以估算出这种影响。发展中国家的农业在一般贸易中继续发挥着重要的作用，特别是在最不发达国家和许多中等收入国家中。为了要取得农业的进步，发展中国家要同意任何协议，多哈回合谈判有至少包括一项农业自由化的政策。不过，随着发展进程的不断深入，生产和服务将变得越来越重要。如上所述，服务的重要性已容易提升，并已构成对发展中国家出口份额的18。经济的快速增长和服务贸易的快速增长之间的存在着一定的关联，却并不意味着后者导致前者。事实上，这种估计比较复杂，存在着鸡和蛋的同时性
41、问题。然而，无论其中原因是什么，服务业已经成为发展过程中的重要组成部分。经济改革和贸易自由化已逐步深入，国家存在可持续的经济繁荣，一些没有繁荣的国家由于缺乏外向型经济政策的支持，无法取得经济上的繁荣，更不用说加产生恶性通货膨胀或内战的风气。若把世界上人口最多的国家打造成一个外向型的经济强国，从最不发达的自给自足的国家，转为一个外向型的经济强国是存在很大难度的。越南改革使贫困率总人口的从二分之一缩减到五分之一，经历了漫长的15年，可见经济改革是不能一蹴而就的。发展中国家的经济自由化发展到最后，一般留下的是服务业。3邮政服务与快递服务的不同快递服务的自由化，成为文章的主要研究对象。邮政服务与快递服
42、务在公司日常活动中的重要性已大幅增加，在过去的十五年中，见证了行业的快速增长。事实上，快递服务已成为一个重要的“基础设施”，许多公司的业务已经为个人提供日益重要的服务。此外，由于容易获得通过快递供应商的市场，特别是在发展中国家，并且能吸引外国直接投资的流入，故此快递服务对跨国公司来说尤为必要。A、一般问题这是困难所在：通常被认为是快递服务邮政服务供应商，几乎都是国有的竞争对手。因此，在这一领域的自由化一直是棘手的，限制竞争在发展中国家的利益的基础上，产生混淆基本的邮政服务，快递服务市场的误解。它将在这一章可以说，目前的现实，强调必须分开邮政活动快递服务。快递服务需要彻底从传统的邮政服务分化，一
43、方面是因为两者之间的“服务贸易总协定”的定义范围明确的实质性分歧。如果不这样做将导致损害成员国的混合苹果和桔子，无论是发达国家还是发展中国家。它也可以阻止在多哈议程谈判的进展情况。B、当前分类快递服务目前分类WTO服务分类表（W/120的），同时根据“邮政”和“快递”服务。邮政及速递服务之间唯一的区别是，前者是指公共部门提供的服务，而后者则是私人的。因此，它这样做不是产品在国际贸易领域，而是不寻常的所有权。这种类型的分类导致很大的混乱的问题，以及有关竞争政策的并发症。美国邮政服务公司是一个独立的政府组织，基本上有一个交付的信件和其他活动的垄断。像其他国家一样，在美国，邮政服务区为主，而不是国际
44、的国内问题。但是，美国和欧盟的利益攸关的，不能分开，明确普遍服务义务的相关快递送货服务将更加对发展中国家不利。因此，在许多方面，包括快递服务作为一个单独的项目在多哈贸易议程的邮政服务自由化将是更重要的是发展中国家，而不是发达国家。C、关于自由化的现有职位由于世贸组织多哈贸易议程开始的筹备工作，快递服务，可能比以往任何时候会发挥更大的作用。该行业已迅速增长，已成为非常国际化，即使没有“服务贸易总协定”有关的帮助，也可以促进它的自由化。目前的情况并不适合过于乐观，作为建议已提交迄今是保守的，可能会做小的数目。到目前为止，已经有一个在邮政及速递服务的一般发展（南锥体共同市场，玻利维亚和香港）和发达国
45、家（欧盟，美国，新西兰）经济区，提交提案的数量。一种方法涉及消除邮政服务和快递服务之间的区别。另一种方法定义快递服务，特别是作为独立的快递和邮政服务，一个有单一的航向。然后，根据这一办法，成员国将能够直接提出快递服务自由化。本项就可以成为一个全球化的供应链管理中的运输活动范围更广的一部分。4总结这项研究的突出成果，可以概括如下：在贸易自由化的服务已经成为越来越重要的发达国家和发展中国家，无论是作为最终产品或是其他生产活动的投入，服务和外国直接投资之间的关系逐渐加强。因此，服务贸易自由化的重要手段吸引外国直接投资，这已成为发展中国家在发展过程中的关键催化剂。对于发展中国家特别是在全球服务自由化的当今世界，高效的服务是必要的，帮助这些国家提升国际竞争力和吸引外国企业来投资，建立长久的合作伙伴关系。在21世纪“服贸总协定”，特别是对发展中国家，具有十分重要的意义，多哈贸易议程将在未来的课程重新设置，这是极其重要的议程。作为一个例子，如何在这个过程中扮演复杂的关系，呈现服务贸易自由化的快递服务。我们一直强调，邮政服务与快递服务是截然不同的，是两个独立的个体，因为它们是独立的部门和后续的改革，实际上可以通过它们的互补和效率来提升效率。然而，如果没有明确分离，在多哈回合谈判取得进展是不可能的，提供特定的政治现实，可能会产生一定的误解。
