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1、数字追凶第3季第6集“赛马”一百块买♥♥BUCkey的Folly赢HundredonBuckeysFollytowin.一百块？hundred你一直买♥♥得很准啊DannySeemslikeyoureonsomestreak,huh,Danny?什么？sorry?你买♥♥的总是赢Justkeeppickingwinners.是吗?我比较会挑吧YeahJustuh,tweakedmysystemalittle.暂停服务NEXTWINDOW女士们先生们参赛马匹已进入跑道1.adysandgentalymen.The
2、horsesareonthetrack.旗帜升起,入闸Theflagisup.Theyareallinline.各就各位出发Andawaytheygo!终点Buckey的Folly险胜！Atthewire,it,sBuckeysFollybyanose!你在干嘛？whyareyoudoingthatrightnow?你知道在原始社会Didyouknowthatprimitivesocieties人们用打击乐器与亡灵交流么？believedinusingpercussionasameansOfcommunicingwiththedead?你要和谁交流吗？Areyoudrummingforsome
3、oneinparticular?对Yes.我在和逝去的灵感交流mdrummingforthecorpseofmyinspiration.你敲RichardFeynman的鼓呢那（诺贝尔物理奖得主）Andbangingbongosworkedforrichardfeynman,so.Feynman敲鼓为开心WelLfeynmanlightedinmakingmusic.我敲鼓却因为不快乐Ineverpercussforpleasure.或许有些事不能靠打鼓来摆脱Actually,!mayhavebeforemeaproblemthatcannotbedrummedaway.1.arry不如泡个澡
4、放松一下吧？1.arry,whydontyoutakearelaxingsoakinthejacuzzi?不No.当你真遇到难题Whenitcomestomattersoftheheart,就算是阿基米德也宁愿洗冷水澡evenarchimedespreferredacoldshower.Megan的事？Megan?她SheS.她很漂亮让人眼前一亮shesexciting,andshesbeautiful.但我们的事Andthisthingthatsbetweenus已经开始影响我的工作了itsbeginningtoaffectmywork.你俩怎么了？Well,whatisgoinonbetw
5、eenyoutwo?我一点都不知道I.havenot.theslightestidea.你感情不稳定的时候没法好好工作well,youneverworkwellWithmotionaluncertainty.你也这么想吗？Doyouthinkthatsit?你也觉得感情会左右我的想法吗？Doyouthinkthatemotionaluncertaintyliesattheartofallthis?我还真不了解你感性的一面Really,mnotasfamiliarwiththatsideofyou.我自己也不大清楚No,noritseems,amI.没有目击证人Norealwitnesses.光
6、天化日就没有人看见？Broaddaylightherandnoonesawathing?麻烦大家让一下-麻烦了Excuseus,folks.-Excuseme.ChUCk进展如何？Hey,chuck.Howyoudoing,buddy?DonHey,don比赛是靠终点线照相来判定的Wen,apparently,thelongshotwaswinninginaphotofinish,所有人的注意力都在比赛上andeverybodywasfocusedontherace.让一下这是在尸体上找到的Foundthisonthebody.可能得请CharHe帮忙Somethingforcharlie,I
7、guess.是吗？Oh,yeah?嗯像是个很复杂的赌博程式Yeah.Lookslikeaprettycomplicatedbettingscheme,and页边上还记着赛马的参考资料there,sracereferencesinthemargins.那为什么找我们？Whydtheycallus?是马场内部报的警Callcamefrominside.已经有一个反黑组探员在暗中调查Theresanagentfromo-calreadyhadaninvestigationunderway.峨Right.显然马场主和犯罪团伙有关联Apparently,thetrackownershiphadtiest
8、oanorganizedcrimegroup.Eppes探员Agenteppes.你好Hey,nicetoseeyou.你好你是？Yeah.What,uh.?1.iz1.iz.1.izWarner对吗？Yeah.Lizwarner,right?你们认识？Youguysknoweachother,huh?Don在Quantico的时候是我的战术训练导师Donwasmytacticaltraininginstructorupatquantico.你现在是反黑组的头儿了？What,now,you,reheadingyourowno-cunit?看我是个多好的老师啊ClobyUh,seewhatago
9、odteacherIam,colby.负责这块的探员请假了Agentinchargetookaleaveofabsence,所以我被调来负责这里soIwasaskedtokeeptheinvestigationupandrunning.好的主管有什久发现吗？Allright,agent-in-charge,comehere.Whathaveyougot?马场主MauriceConnors爱赌博Owneroftheracetrack,mauriceConnorsJikestogamble.但不擅长此道Isntverygoodatit.IvanTabakian把他的场子买♥&hear
10、ts;下了So,ivantabakianboughtuphismarkers.是吗？IvanTabakian?Oh,yeah?Ivantabakian?他可是个大人物涉及过信♥川♥卡♥欺诈Hesamajorplayer.Hiscrewsintocreditcardscams,保险金欺诈还有勒索insurancefraud,andextortion.嗯我知道他是什么人Right.No.Iknowwhoheis.在这儿直到了什么？What-whathavetheygotgoingonhere?这是个赌博骗局Well,itsagamblingscam,但我们
11、还没插手管这案子butwehaventputourfingeronityet.你们觉得那小子的死和这个有关？Whayouthinkthiskidsnnected?我们在他身旁找到了这笔记本Wefoundthatnotebookwiththebody.看上去Fromthelooksofit,这个DannyRoberts似乎在帮Tabakianseemslikethiskid,dannyroberts,maybehelpingtabakian.我不知道1dontknow.这证据不够Soundsalittlethintome.我们还在他身上找到了赌票Wealsofoundsomebettingsli
12、psonthebody.过去10天90场赛马Pasttendays,90races.这个DannyRoberts赌广30场Thiskiddannyrobertsmademorethan30bets.然后呢？Yeah.So?全赢Andwoneverysingletime.解释下为什么把鼓放到我办公室Hey,explaintomewhythedrumhastobeinmyoffice.因为我得清理地板BecauseIhadtoclearmyfloor.他们在清洗物理系的地毯Theyresamingthecarpetsinthephysicsdepartment.嘿-太好了Hey.-Perfect.
13、Hey.你们饿吗？我们去吃晚饭吧You-youguyshungry?Letsgograbsodinner.我去不了你能帮我看看这个吗Icantgetanydinner,butneedyoutolookatthisforme.可以吗？只要一会儿Wouldu?Justtakeasecond?当然可以Okay,sure.说到晚餐-我知道非常抱歉Speakingofdinner.-1know.I-msorry.我我忙着I-Ijust.vebeensoboggeddownwith.工作？work?1.awrence?Iawrence?来看看这个Cometakeaganderatthis.这是靠分类法来I
14、t,sacategory-basedapproachto.不知道是个预测系统对吧？Idontknowwhat,butitsaforecastingsyst,right?非常微妙It,sverysophisticated.不不不岂止是微妙Oh,no,no,no.Thismorethansophisticated.知道这让我想到什么了吗？Youknowwhatthisremindsmeof?对巴♥赫♥音乐的拓扑分♥析♥法Atoposapproachtobach,smusic.我说了是“非常的微妙”Isaid,verysophisticated
15、.1对Yes,youdid.这东西哪来的？Wheredidthiscomefrom?是一个在马场被谋杀的人的Itsfroma-aguywhowasmurderedataracetrack.马场？Aracetrack?对我们怀疑他用这预测系统赌马Yeah,andWethinkhewasusingittopickhorses.这样这整个方法就不合理了Yeah,butifso,thiswholeappachiscounterintuitive.怎公说？Well,howso?如果你要预测一场赛马Well,ifyouretryingtoforecastahorserace,通常都该预测冠军但youreu
16、suallytryingtopickthewinner,but,uh.?怎么？What?这些程式却不是来选冠军的Buttheseequationsarentdesignedthatway.那是选什么？Howaretheydesigned?是设计来忽略冠军的Theyredesignedtoignorethewinner.因为他并不是在选冠军Becausehewasntpickingthewinner.而是在选亚军Hewaspickingthesecondplacehorse.为什么要弄个系统选亚军呢？Hey,whydesignasystemtopicksecondplace?这系统怎能连续选30
17、个冠军？Howdoesthatsystemletyoupick30straightwinnersinarow?没道理啊Doesntmakesense.通常来说你要是选赛马youknow,ifyouregonnafixhorseracesonaregularbasis,至少得挑有竞争力的youhavetopickhorsesthatareatleastcontenders.如果他赢太多次Right,becauseifthelongshotwinstoomanytimes,就会让人起疑then,Imeanjt,sgonnalookstrange.对所以得挑一匹可能赢的马Right.So,youha
18、vetopickahorsethatcouldwin.第二位的Second然后Tabakian负责安排给那匹马帮助andthentabakianwouldhavetomakesurethathorsehadhelp.看来有人比我们早到过DannyRoberts的公♥寓♥Lookslikesomebodybeatustodannyrobertsapartment.房♥东刚报♥警♥有人强行闯入1.andlordjustcalledlapd.Withabreak-in.我去看看1.etsgo.我听见动静所以进来看看Iheardab
19、outwhathappened,soIletmyselfin.你最后一次来这里是什么时候？Whensthelasttimeyouwerehere?昨天把信递过来的时候Idroppedoffthemailyesterday.知道有什么东西不见了吗？Canyoutellifanythingsmissing?应该没有我也不确定1dontthinkso,butIcanttellreally.你就住楼下？Andyoulivedownstairs?你昨晚没听见什么？Anychanceyoumighthaveheardsomethinglastnight?我睡前吃了安♥眠♥药&h
20、earts;ItookanambienbeforeIwenttobed.帮不上什么忙是吧？mnotmuchhelp,amI?知道这是谁吗？Youhaveanyideawhothisis?是Danny的女朋友Oh,dannysgirlfriend.她做和电脑有关的工作Shedidsomethingwithcomputers,!think.Danny对她很痴迷Dannywascrazyabther.知道能在哪找到她吗？Anyideawherewemightfindher?在SanPedro她家里他们大多数时候都在那儿Well,theyspentmostoftheirtimeatherplacedo
21、wninsanpedro.吃过午饭了吗？Youhadanylunchyet?唔？Hmm?“是“还是“晤“？Isthatayesorahmm?抱歉你说什么？msorry.What?我问你吃过午饭了吗？Isaid,doyouwantlunch?你在看什么？Whatareyoulookingat?这是个预测系统It,saforecastingsystem.非常的复杂It,sextremelycolex.我看不出来内在的逻辑关系Ijustcantseemtocrackthelogicofthisenablingargument.那就先休息一下Allright,sotakeabreak.我会Illjus
22、t.我待会自己做个火鸡三文治llmakemyselfaniceturkeysandwichlater.你确定？Yousure?这树每真不错Thesraspberrieslookdelicious.我买♥♥了两盒Iboughttwobasketsofthem.自从新闻报导了抗氧化剂的事Everincethatbigthingonthenewsaboutantioxidants,根本就买♥♥不到蓝莓了但这些树莓真的很便宜youcantfindablueberry,buttheseraspberriesthey*resocheap.你刚才说什么
23、？Whatdidyousay?我说这些树莓很便宜Isaidraspberries-theyresocheap.因为大家都想买♥♥蓝苞？Causeeveryonewantsblueberries?我以为你对此不感兴趣呢AndIthoughtyouwerentinterested.我得去查点东西Igottocheckonsomething.我要去找DonIgottogofinddon,晚点回来吃晚饭somgonnabehomelaterfordinner.好的Okay.但我要出去吃晚饭Butmgoingoutfordinner.我在华盛顿待了一段时间SoLUh,dida
24、tourinWashington.对履历有帮助Goodfortheresume.是吗？然后呢？Oh,yeah?What?想拍马屁？Youmisskickingass?会也是你教我的oh,youonlythinkthatbecauseyoutaughtmehow.你以前可是很傻的Hey,youwereawildgirl.你的问题是容易受情绪影响Imean,ifIrecall,youhadabitofanissuewithadrenaline,right?那不是问题是爱好Iliketothinkit,moreofahobbythananissue.你们怎么参与这案子的？Uh-huh.Now,how
25、dyoustumbleontothiscase?我们正监视一宗跟Well,wewererunningasurveillanceona挪威Svadorian群岛毒品组织有关的案子amidlevelsupplierlinkedtoasvadoriandrugcartel.犯罪嫌疑人喜欢来马场Helikedcomingtothetrack,我们也就跟着来了sowecamewithhim.在这儿发现了Tabakian?What?That,swhereyoufoundtabakian?嗯我们觉得不会这么巧Yeah,werethinkingthedrugsandhimcan,tbeacoincidence
26、,但目前还没在马场发现毒品butsofar,weveneverseenanyproductatthetrack.那马场主.他参与了吗？NowJusttellmeifthisownerguy.ishecooperating?MauriceConnors?没有Mauriceconnors?No.哦？-这马场可是赚钱机器Oh?-Tracksacashcow,他知道Tabakian想撇开他so,longasitis,hefigurestabakian,sjustgonnakeephimaround.嘿Hey.我们可以寓间他和TabakianYouknow,wecouldshakethingsupfor
27、himwithtabakian.Youknow?你喜欢玩冒险游戏啊Riskygameyouliketoplay.爱好Iliketothinkofitmoreasahobby.那个就是他Sothathim.你想怎么办？Howyouwannaplaythis?你主导我突破Uh,well,youlead.llshake.Connors先生我们是FBIMr.Connors.Fbi.我们想和你谈谈昨天发生的事Wedliketotalktoyouaboutwhathappenedyesterday.我对此一无所知Idontknowanythingaboutit.你马场发生的谋杀你一无所知？Youdon,t
28、knowanythingaboutamurderatyourracetrack?我知道什么事但不认识那孩子Well,mawareofwhathappened,butIdidntowthekid.是吗？收银员说他是常客Really?Causeaccordingtosomeofyourtellers,hewasaregular.我们这儿常客很多Wehavealotofregulars.那有多少在赛马的时候被杀呢？Yeah,howmanyofthemarestabbedduringtheraces?你说他的死和马场有关？Yoresuggestinghisdeathhadsomethingtodowi
29、thmyracetrack?不知道也许是和马场新老板有关？Idonknow,maybewiththetracksnewmanagement?新老板？Newmagement?对IvanTabakianYeahjvantabakian.你知道他的事吗？Youknownythingabouthim?我不会再回答任何问题了IdontthinkIshouldansweranymorequestions.你没回答任何问题Youhaventansweredanyyet.Eppeseppes.好的我们马上就来Yeah,allright,we,reonourway.1.iZ我们得走了HeyJiz,wegotta
30、go.其实你回不回答问题并不重要Youknow,doesntreallymatterifyouanswerourquestions.因为Tabakian会知道你和FBI谈过Causealltabakian,sgonnahearisthatyouweretalkingtohefbi.谢谢你Connors先生Thanksorallyourhelp,mr.Connors.我们还会来找你的Wellbeseeingyou.找到DannyRobert的电&hearts话♥记录fGotthedumpondannyroberts,sphone.发现什么了？Anythinggood?上个月他常拨&
31、hearts;打♥两个号♥码Yeah,pastmonth,hesonlycalledtwonumbersregularly-一个是SanPedro总机找他的女友oneisasanpedroexchange,probablyhisirlfriend.是么？知道她女友叫什么吗？Yeah?Didyougethername?连地址都知道了Andanaddress.把那地址输进你车的导航系统吧Plugthatintoyourfancylittlenavsysteminyouracura.快别闹了Oh,dontplay.另一个号♥码呢？whatabotheothe
32、rone?是个场外赌盘的号♥码在PalomarItsanoff-trackbettingplace.Palomarotb.不错啊他们怎么说Thatsoundsgood.Whatdtheysay?我还没打过去这不重要吧Ididntcallthem.Didntreallyseemimptant.别闹了GrangerThatwasalmostfunny,granger.快告诉我他们怎么说的？Comeon,whatdidtheysay?把我转到法律处了Transferredmeovertolegalaffairs.他们说会协助调查Theysaidtheyrehappytocooperat
33、e.只要我有传票SoonasIproduceasubpoena.那就去看看那个女朋友吧1.etsgoseethegirlfriend.我知道为什么SoIthinkIknowwhyDannyRoberts挑亚军dannyrobertswasfocusedonpickingsecondplacefinishers.他设计r一个系统来计算套利机会Hedesignedasystemthatidentifiesarbitrageopportunities.什么意思？Whatdoesthatmean?意思是他在找便宜马Itmeanshewaslookingforbargains.便宜马？Bargains?
34、马场用市场驱动的赛马赌金系统Racetrackusepari-mutuelparimutuelbettingsystems来确定赔率wheremarketforcesdeterminetheodds.这是由一个法国香水制♥造♥者发明的Itwasactuallyinventedbyafrenchperfumemaker,.在19世纪-Charlie别uh,inthe1800sallrigh-CharlieJust.好吧okay.赛马赌金计算中Inpari-mutuelbetting,赔率根据马匹的赌注份额不同而变theoddsfctuateaccordintohowm
35、uchiswageredonahorse.这就有点像拍卖♥♥Soitslikekindoflikeanauction很多人想买♥♥一样东西wherethemorepeopletherearethatwanttobuysomething,这东西就会变得越贵themoreexpensiveitbecomes.然后售罄！Andsold!在赛马赌博里下注越多赔率越低Inhorse-racing,moreexpensivetranslatestolowerodds.所以赔率越低回报就越小Sothelowertheodds,thesmallerthe
36、returnonthebet.那最受欢迎的马就是被下注最多的Sothefavoriteisjustahorsewiththemostamountofmoneybet?完全正确Thatsexactlyit.所以大部分人都去选冠军Andsomanypeoplearefocusedonpickingthewinner,最受欢迎的马这方面信息很多there,sanactiveexchangeOfinformationgoingonaboutthefavorite.但我们研究的马却没人关注Butweredealingwithahorseherethatnoonesreallypayingattentio
37、nto,so.这是个低效市场anditcanalsobeahighlyinefficientmarket.这种低效会使得Thatinefficiencycreatesasituation获利的可能大风险wherethepotentialforrewardoutweighstherisk.这就是Roberts赌的机会ThosearetheOppounitiesthatrobertswasbettingon.这还不能解释为什么Roberts赢了30场Buthatstilldoesntexplainhowrobertswon30straightbets,right?没错还解释不了No,youreri
38、ghitdoesn,T.一定有什么东西变了Imean,someingmustvechanged,可能是他系统里的也可能是马场的youknow,whetheritwasinhissystem,oratthetrack足以让他致命的Right,enoughtogethimkilled.要确定是什么变了Andinordertodeterminethat,我需要赛马的数据比较系统和最近的赛马结果IneeddaonthoseracessoIcancomparehissystemtothemostrecentresults.要多近的？Howrecent?大概一年内的吧Just,like,youknow,t
39、heracesinthepastyear.欢迎加入我们Yeah,welcometomyworld.我替一个IT公♥司♥作软件Iwritesoftwareforanitcompany.自♥由♥职业所以我大多数在家工作It,sfreelance,soImostlyworkutofhome.Danny经常赛马结束后过来Dannyalwaysusedtostopbyaftertheraces,and他没出现whenhedidntshowup.你知道有谁想伤害他吗？canyouthinkofanybodywhomightvewantedtohurt
40、him?不知道No.抱歉msorry.不如我和她单独谈谈吧？HowaboutifIgivethewholejustusgirlsthingatry?好吧Allright.我打电♥话♥给总部看看给那场外赌博公♥司♥发传票的事llcalltheOffICe,checkonthestatusofthesubpoenafortheotb.好运Goodluck.谢谢thx你们定了婚期么？hadyouguyssetadateyet?明年春天Nextspring.我们是比较怪的一对wewerekindofanoddpR.Danny热情友好我就有点孤僻D
41、annywasoutgoing,andIwasmorethegeek.我也和你们差不多Igotsomethingsimilargoingonmyself.我想不通这怎么可能发生Ijustdonunderstandhowthiscouldhavehappened.Danny在马场和人争执过吗？Doyouknowifdannyhadanargumentwithsomeoneatthetrack?他在马场都不和别人说话Hedidnteventalktoanybodyatthetrack.他就专注自己的预测系统了Hewastoofocusedonworkinghissystem.他可能涉及赛马作弊吗？
42、Doyouthinkhecouldhavebeeninvolvedinfixinghorseraces?Reeves探员我常常得帮他付房♥租Agentreeves,mostmonthsIhadtopaydannysrent.如果他涉及作弊怎么会不赢钱呢？Ifhewascheating,wouldnthebewinning?他赢钱了Hewaswinning.这周赢r30场30betsthisweek.也许DannyRoberts这小子一直瞒着他女友Somaybethisdannyrobertskidwaskeepingthegirlfriendinthedark.她对他赢钱的事惊呆
43、了SheWatotallysurprisedaboutthewinnings.不知道Idontknow.应该不是第一次瞒着他女友吧Wouldntbethefirsttimeaguytriedtohidemoneyfromhisgirl.我同意但听房♥东说起他们是mwithyou,butthewaythelandladyspokeaboutthem,热恋中的情侣不太合理啊youngcoupleinlove,it,snotreallyaddingup.这事的确很奇怪Thisthingisntaddingupinabigway.看来他不止隐瞒了30次赌钱Turnsouthewashid
44、ingrethanjust30betsfromher.这是给Palomar场外赌博公♥司&hearts传票后在DannyRoberts的帐上直到的Thatstheresultsofthesubpoenafromdannyroberts,saccountatpalomarotb.他几周前开了帐户还赌了一次Hesetuptheaccountacoupleweeksagoandheplacedonebet.什么六连冠么？What,pick-six?没错Yeah.什么是六连冠？Whatisapick-six?你得选出连续六场赛马的冠军Youhavetopickthewinnerinsix
45、straightraces.其实就跟玩彩票差不多Itsbasicallylikewinningthelottery,他5天前买♥♥的andhejustdiditfivedaysago.那他赢r多少？Yeah,whatdidheget?50万Halfamil.杀他就有动机了Oh,well,theresalotofmotiveforsomeone.未必Ornot.我刚和他们谈过Ijusttalkedtothem.他们说他根本没去领奖金Theytdmethathenevercashedtheticket.你挺了解Don的？soyouknowdonprettyWen,huh?你知道在Quantico是怎样的Youknowwhatquantico,slike.我打赌他是个相当严厉的导师吧？Yeah,Ibeth
