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1、SURVEY RESEARCH,Topic #1Covered in considerable detail in Weisberg et al. textbook,SURVEY RESEARCHTopic #1,Survey Research,Quantitative study of large human populations using these basic research operations:define the population to be studied;select a representative sample;measure (by means of inter
2、view questions) characteristics of the respondents in the sample;tabulate, crosstabulate, and otherwise analyze the sample data (using SPSS, etc.) to produce various sample statistics; andmake inferences from sample statistics to population parameters of interest.,Survey ResearchQuantitative st,Type
3、s of Surveys,Fake/spurious/recreational polls and surveys:straw/call-in/write-in or web based pollspropaganda polls (asking “biased” questions) sponsored by advocacy or interest groupspolitical persuasion disguised as polling (“push polls”)commercial selling disguised as polling,Types of SurveysFake
4、/spurious/,Types of Surveys (cont.),Legitimate commercial surveys Public (results released to the public)syndicated polls (starting in late 1930s)Gallup, Roper, Harris, etc. media polls (starting in the 1960s)pre-election tracking pollsexit polls Proprietary (contract research; results not publicly
5、released)market research (starting in 1920s)political consulting/polling for candidates, parties, and advocacy and interest groups (starting in the 1950s),Types of Surveys (cont.)Legiti,Types of Surveys (cont.),Non-commercial surveys Government (“statistical”) survey researchU.S. CensusCurrent Popul
6、ation Survey (CPS)Rotating panel survey of 60,000 householdsSource of labor force size and unemployment dataVoter registration and turnout (but not vote choices and opinions)Annual Survey of Social Security and Medicare BeneficiariesNational Crime Victimization Survey,Types of Surveys (cont.)Non-co,
7、Types of Surveys (cont.),Non-commercial surveys (cont.)Academic/scholarly/scientific surveysVoting studies (surveys vs. election data)“Columbia” (sociological) studies (1940s)local samplesextended panel surveysemphasizing groups affiliationsIndex of Political Disposition (IPP),Types of Surveys (cont
8、.)Non-co,Types of Surveys (cont.),Voting studies (cont.)“Michigan” (political/social psychological) studiesNational samplesLimited (pre- and post-election) panelsOccasional extended panels (four years)Emphasize opinions, attitudes, and orientation over group affiliationsParty Identification (Student
9、 Survey Q1 & Q2)American National Election Studies (ANES)Social Science Data Archives Interuniversity Consortium for Social and Political Research (ICPSR) at University of MichiganEuropean Consortium for Political Research at University of Essex (UK),Types of Surveys (cont.)Voting,IBM Punch Card,IBM
10、 Punch Card,Other Major (Ongoing) Surveys,General Social Survey (GSS), NORC (University of Chicago) Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), University of Michigan SRCCitizen Participation surveys (Sidney Verba and others)Long-Term Political Socialization Panel StudyParent-child pairs interviewed in 1
11、965, 1973, 1982, and 2019British, Canadian, German, etc., Election Studies,Other Major (Ongoing) SurveysG,What Do (Political) Surveys (Purport to) Measure?,voting intentions (and likelihood of voting) attitudes/opinions/preferences specific issues general orientations party ID, ideological placement
12、, political trust/cynicismbeliefs/perceptions/predictions/salience information/knowledgereported behavior did you vote? for whom? contribute $? attend meeting?job-seeking activityTV watching crime victimizationdemographics,What Do (Political) Surveys (P,Preview of Data Collection Methods,Self-admini
13、stered “paper and pencil” or web-based questionnaires Student Survey SCEQExit pollsTelephone interviewsTracking pollsPersonal interviewsANESCPS, GSS, PSID, etc.Closed-Form vs. Open-Ended QuestionsMultiple-choice test vs. “blue book” test SCEQ “scan sheets” vs. “blue sheets”,Preview of Data Collectio
14、n Met,Closed-Form Questions (cont.),Multiple-choice format: may beself-administered,telephone, orpersonal (ANES)Some people dont pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been VERY MUCH interested, SOMEWHAT interested or NOT MUCH interested in the politica
15、l campaigns so far this year?1. Very much interested3. Somewhat interested5. Not much interested8. Dont know9. Refused0. NA,Closed-Form Questions (cont.)M,Closed-Form Questions (cont.),Agree / Disagree Format (ANES)“This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on tradition
16、al family ties.”Do you AGREE STRONGLY, AGREE SOMEWHAT, NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE, DISAGREE SOMEWHAT, or DISAGREE STRONGLY with this statement?1. Agree strongly2. Agree somewhat3. Neither agree nor disagree4. Disagree somewhat5. Disagree strongly8. Dont know9. Refused0. NA,Closed-Form Questions (con
17、t.)A,Closed-form Questions (cont.),Rating Scale Format (ANES)Some people think the government should provide fewer services even in areas such as health and education in order to reduce spending. Suppose these people are at one end of a scale, at point 1. Other people feel it is important for the go
18、vernment to provide many more services even if it means an increase in spending. Suppose these people are at the other end, at point 7. And, of course, some other people have opinions somewhere in between, at points 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.Where would you place YOURSELF on this scale, or havent you thought
19、much about this?01. Govt should provide many fewer services02.03.04.05.06.07. Govt should provide many more services80. Havent thought much about this88. Dont know89. Refused00. NA,Closed-form Questions (cont.)R,Closed-form Questions (cont.),Rating Scale Format (cont.)Where would you place GEORGE W.
20、 BUSH on this issue?DO NOT PROBE DK1. Government should provide many fewer services2.3.4.5.6.7. Government should provide many more services8. Dont know9. Refused0. NANote: Randomize order of administration for Pres candidates,Closed-form Questions (cont.)R,Thermometer Scale,Please look at page 2 of
21、 the booklet. See Weisberg et al., p. 80Id like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news these days.Ill read the name of a person and Id like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer. Ratings between 50 degrees and
22、100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you dont feel favorable toward the person and that you dont care too much for that person. You would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you dont feel particularly warm or col
23、d toward the person.If we come to a person whose name you dont recognize, you dont need to rate that person. Just tell me and well move on to the next one.,Thermometer Scale,Closed-form Questions (cont.),Indices (composite measures)Trust in government (ANES)Index of respondents trust in government,
24、built from responses to the following questions: (1) How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? (2) Do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or dont waste very much of it? (3) Would you s
25、ay the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all the people? (4) Do you think that quite a few of the people running the government are crooked or that not very many of them are? Those who rank low on this index were more
26、 likely to select the distrusting position for each of these items. 1 Low 2 3 4 5 High 9 NA,Closed-form Questions (cont.)I,Experimenting with Closed-Form Questions (2019 ANES),IF R SELECTED FOR STANDARD VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able t
27、o vote because they werent registered, they were sick, or they just didnt have time. How about you-did you vote in the elections this November?1. Yes, voted5. No, didnt vote8. Dont know9. Refused0. NAIF R SELECTED FOR EXPERIMENTAL VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a l
28、ot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered, they were sick, or they just didnt have time. Which of the following statements best describes you: 1. I did not vote (in the election this November).2. I thought about voting this time, but didnt.3. I usually vote, but didnt this ti
29、me.4. I am sure I voted8. Dont know9. Refused0. NA,Experimenting with Closed-Form,Closed-Form Questions (cont.),Closed-form questions produce pre-coded data.This is a major advantage,in same way that multiple-choice tests vs. essay exams can be quickly and reliably scored.Researchers can move quickl
30、y to tabulation and analysis.Student Survey (and SCEQ) answer sheets can be sent directly for scanning, producing an electronic data file.See next slide ANES (and other personal) interview sheets must be transcribed and then entered into electronic format (e.g., Excel spreadsheet or SPSS Data Editor
31、 screen) to create an electronic file.,Closed-Form Questions (cont.)C,For example, 2009 Student Survey Data,For example, 2009 Student Surv,Open-Ended Questions,ANES: Party Likes/Dislikes Id like to ask you what you think are the good and bad points about the two NATIONAL PARTIES. Note: Randomize ord
32、er of administration for partiesIs there anything in particular that you LIKE about the Democratic party?IF R SAYS THERE IS SOMETHING R LIKES ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY:(What is that?)PROBE: ANYTHING ELSE YOU LIKE ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? UNTIL R SAYS NO.Is there anything in particular that you DONT
33、LIKE about the Democratic party? Etc.Data: Number of responsesBalance of positive vs. negative responsesContent of responses,Open-Ended Questions ANES: Par,Data must be coded for quantitative analysis,Is there anything in particular that you LIKE/DISLIKE about the Democratic/Republican party?0101 Tr
34、aditional Democratic voter: always been a Democrat; just a Democrat; never been a Republican; just couldnt vote Republican0102 Traditional Republican voter: always been a Republican; just a Republican; never been a Democrat; just couldnt vote Democratic0111 Positive, personal, affective terms applie
35、d to party-good/nice people; patriotic; etc.0112 Negative, personal, affective terms applied to party-bad/lazy people; lack of patriotism; etc.0121 Can trust them; they keep their promises; you know where they stand 0122 Cant trust them; they break their promises; you dont know where they stand0131
36、Party is well-organized, sticks together, is united; members are disciplined; votes party line0132 Party is poorly-organized/really two parties/divided/factionalized; members not disciplined; doesnt vote party line0133 Party is (more) representative/good cross-section of the country; encompasses a w
37、ider variety of views/people; is more at the center of the countrys views ETC,Data must be coded for quantit,From SETUPS Codebook: Handout #1B in Course Pack or from Course Website,V30MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL PROBLEM “What do you think is the single most important problem facing this country?” (Respo
38、nses have been categorized into the five groups listed below.)1 Economy2 Foreign affairs3 Social welfare4 Crime, public order5 Other9 NAIn the actual ANES survey, this is an open-ended question with hundreds of code categories.Data from such open-ended questions usually is not available until long a
39、fter data from closed form questions is available.Problem with comparable closed-form questions ,From SETUPS Codebook: Handout,2019 EXIT POLLSimilar closed-form questions can have serious problems.Was 2019 election “all about values,” as the media claimed?Exit PollQuestion ETaxes 5%Education 4%Iraq
40、15%Terrorism 19%Economy/Jobs 20%Moral values 22%Health care 8%Omit 7%,2019 EXIT POLL,2000 EXIT POLLQuestion DWorld Affairs 12%Med/Rx 7%Health Care 8%Econ/Jobs18%Taxes14%Education14%Soc Security14%Omit13%,2000 EXIT POLL,Question Design,See Weisberg et al., Chapter 4Question wording can be blatantly b
41、iased “pushing” respondent to a preferred responses, as in propaganda pollsDo you favor murdering innocent babies in the womb?Should government officials have the power to interfere with womens personal decisions?,Question DesignSee Weisberg et,Question Design,Even without manifest bias, phrasing ca
42、n hugely affect the distribution of responses, especially when many respondents are ambivalent about the issue.Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam?Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam and allow the Vietnamese to settle things among themselves?Do
43、 you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam, even if this means that the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese or “the Communists” take over?If the full House votes to impeach Bill Clinton, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not?Be
44、tter to resign: 60%If the full House votes to send impeachment articles to the Senate for a trial, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not?Better to resign: 43%,Question DesignEven without ma,Question Design (cont.),Unbalanced vs. balanced for
45、matShould ILLEGAL immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the U.S. illegally, or shouldnt they? Should be deported69%Should not be deported24%Unsure 7%If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at lea
46、st two years? They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status. OR, They should be deported back to their native country.Chance to keep jobs etc. 62%Deported 33%Unsure 5%CBS News/New York Times Poll. May 18-23, 2019,Question Design (cont.)Unbalan,Question Design
47、 (cont.),Unbalanced vs. balanced formatANES through 1960:“If cities and towns around the country need help to build more schools, the government in Washington ought to give them the money they need. Do you have an opinion on this or not?” ANES from 1964 onwards:“Some people think that the government
48、 in Washington should help towns and cities provide education for grade and high school children; others think that this should be handled by states and local communities. Have you been interested enough in this to favor one side over the other?”Also recall “government services” question.,Question D
49、esign (cont.)Unbalan,Question Design (cont.),Ambiguity (see Weisberg, p. 85)“How many public officials do you think are a little bit dishonest - most, some, a few, or none?” ANES, earlier versionMany respondents answered “few or none,” but evidently because they though some or most public officials
50、were a whole lot dishonest.“Do you think that that quite a few people running the government are crooked, not very many are, or do you think hardly any of them are?” ANES, current version,Question Design (cont.)Ambigui,Question Design (cont.),Might the Holocaust Have Never Happened?Asked in a “wrong
