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1、CAPLAND PLAZA, QINGDAO凯悦国际，青岛DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANCY REPORT SUMMARY项目定位顾问报告摘要Qingdao CAPLAND Property Group Ltd.青岛凯悦置业集团有限公司February 2006二零零六年二月Chapter章节Page No.页码1.0Project Overview 项目分析 1 31.1Introduction 项目简介1.2Site Analysis地块分析1.3Characteristics of Surrounding Areas周边环境1.4Development Outlook 区域发
2、展展望2.0Economic Overview经济情况回顾与分析 4 53.0Property Market Analysis 房地产市场研究 6 123.1Residential Sector住宅市场3.2Retail Sector商业市场3.3Office sector写字楼市场4.0Market Positioning 市场定位建议 13 193.1Market Positioning for Residential住宅定位3.2Market Positioning for Retail商业定位3.3Market Positioning for Office写字楼定位5.0Design
3、Issues 设计要点 20 295.1Overall Development Strategies 项目整体发展建议5.2Major Design Issues 物业设计要点6.0Financial Analysis 财务分析 30 356.1Basic Parameters and Assumptions基本参数及假设6.2Construction Cost 建安成本费用6.3Development Cost开发成本费用6.4Assumptions of Taxation and Others税务支出及其他假定6.5Construction Programme 工程进度6.6Investm
4、ent Schedule of the Development Cost投资进度Chapter章节Page No.页码6.7Assumption of Sales and Leasing Performance 租售情况假设6.8Profit & Loss 损益表6.9Cash flow Analysis 现金流量分析7.0Implementation Strategies 实施策略建议 36 397.1Disposal Strategies 项目处置策略建议7.2Marketing Strategies 市场推广策略建议7.3Management Strategies 物业管理策略建议8.0
5、Conclusions 结论 40 411.1Introduction 项目简介 The proposed development is to be located on the edge of the CBD area in Qingdao, with only the Yizhong Crowne Holiday Inn Hotel standing between the project and Xianggang Road. It is approximately 1.5 kilometres from the Qingdao municipal government. Both th
6、e business and retail environment are well established in the vicinity, which brings great potential to add value to the project. Figure 1.1 illustrates the geographical location of the project. 本项目地处青岛市自然形成的CBD区域边缘，商务氛围较为成熟，与香港路仅隔颐中皇冠假日酒店。向东距离青岛市政府约1.5公里左右。周边不仅有浓厚的商务氛围，同时也具有良好的商业环境，得天独厚的区位优势使得项目具有良
7、好的发展潜力及升值空间。图1.1为本项目的位置图。Figure 1.1: Location Map 图1.1：项目位置图Source: CB Richard Ellis 资料来源：世邦魏理仕 The shape of the site is an irregular rectangle, covering a land area of 8,542 square metres. The GFA is estimated to reach 110,186 square metres, with 85,288 square metres aboveground, and a plot ratio o
8、f 9.98. The height of the project will reach 150 metres. It is preliminarily planned to consist of offices, apartments and retail. 项目地块呈不规划的矩形，总占地面积为8,542平方米，预计总建筑面积为110,186平方米，地上建筑面积为85,288平方米，容积率为9.98，建筑高度可达到150米。项目初步规划为写字楼、公寓和商业。1.2Site Analysis 地块分析 Visibility: The project is not adjacent to maj
9、or roads, which may have a negative impact on its visibility. However, with the height of construction reaching 150 metres, it will become a landmark, thus improving recognition of the project. 可视性：本项目不临主要的干道，可视性受一定影响。但建筑高度可达150米，具有良好的标志性，提升了项目的标识性。 Road Systems: There are several main roads in the
10、surrounding areas of the project, including Xianggang Road, Donghai Road and Fuzhou Road. Only Yanerdao Road, which is a one-way lane during the day, connects directly with the project. The public transportation system in the vicinity is mature and connects to major areas of the city. 道路系统：项目周边的路网较为
11、发达，有香港路、东海路和福州路等，但与项目直接相连的主要道路只有燕儿岛路，且燕儿岛路为限时单行，对项目各类型物业的开发均带来一定影响。本项目周边的公共交通系统较为发达，有效的连接了城市的主要区域。 Accessibility: Only Yanerdao Road is connected directly with the project. This, coupled with poor traffic conditions during peak hours will affect the accessibility of the project. The project is a mix
12、ed-use, which may require such accessibility issues to be resolved.通行状况：由于与本项目相连的主要道路只有燕儿岛路一条，且香港路和东海路在上下班高峰时段较为拥堵，一定程度上也限制了本项目的出行。本项目为综合性项目，通行的便利性尤为重要，这是本项目应该积极解决的重要问题。 Landscape: The landscape in surrounding areas of the project remains unpleasant. However, sea views are available on higher floors
13、. This is invaluable in Qingdao, which suggests that it is appropriate to develop residential and office properties which will benefit from these views. 景观：本项目周边城市景观较差，但在较高楼层可以观赏到海洋景观，对于目前青岛较为稀缺的临海土地供应来说，本项目具有良好的景观优势，适宜住宅及写字楼物业的开发。1.3Characteristics of Surrounding Areas 周边环境 The Kaiyue Plaza project
14、 is located in an area which has experienced rapid development. The business and retail environment, and the relevant supporting facilities are mature. It is convenient for living and working, and has good fundamental conditions to develop retail, office and residential properties. 凯悦国际项目所处的位置是城市近几年
15、正快速发展的区域，周边商务、商业氛围较为成熟，相关的配套设施也较为完善，为在此工作和生活提供了诸多的便利性，同时也为本项目开发商业、写字楼、住宅等物业打下良好的基础。 The landscape to the east of the site is relatively poor. It is acknowledged that there is little possibility of renovating and redeveloping the areas to the east of the site, and this may have a negative impact on t
16、he project. 地块的东边的城市景观较差，据了解，至2008年前，此区域的拆迁可能性较小，这将对本项目的未来发展带来一定的负面影响。 On the southernmost part of Yanerdao Road is the Olympic Village and Stadiums which are under construction, which will make the project recognizable on a wider scale. In addition, the invisible resources after the Olympic Games w
17、ill further promote the demand for residential and retail sectors in the area. 燕儿岛路的最南端是正在建设中的奥运村及奥运比赛场馆，奥运村的建设无疑大大增加了区域的知名度，并且奥运过后所带来的无形资源也更加推动了区域居住、商业类的物业需求。 The residents in the area consist mainly of middle to high income groups. The projects location within the central business area, populated
18、by high-income groups and expatriates, will be beneficial to the various components of the project. 目前区域内的居民以中高收入人群为主，且项目位于商务区内，高收入人群及外籍人士较为集中，消费能力强，这将对本项目各类型物业的发展提供有力的支持。1.4Development Outlook区域发展展望 The project is located within the CBD area in Qingdao, with relatively well-established business and
19、 retail environments. It is likely that the business and retail conditions along Xianggang Road will develop and improve further and bring bright prospects and potential to the project and its surrounding areas.本项目位于青岛市自然形成的CBD区域内，商务及商业氛围较为浓厚，并且此商务及商业氛围仍有东移的趋势，相信随着香港路商务及商业氛围的不断发展与完善，未来此路沿线将会有较好的发展前景
20、，这势必将给本项目带来极大的开发潜力，从而促进项目内各类型物业的发展。 The holding of the Olympic Games also be beneficial to the recognition of the area, thereby improving living and working conditions. The scarcity of land supply with sea views will also contribute to the opportunities and add value to the project. 奥运的举办也必将带来区域知名度的
21、不断提升，项目周边便利的居住生活条件、良好的临海资源以及稀缺的土地供应同样为本项目的开发带来良好的开发契机及升值空间。 Qingdao is a beautiful coastal city located to the south of Shandong Peninsula. It is also becoming an increasingly important economic and international conference city for China. At present, it is the leader in the economic development of
22、Shandong Province. Qingdao, with its pleasant natural landscape, has become a notable tourist resort worldwide. Since the reforming and opening up of China in 1980s, Qingdao has experienced rapid growth in terms of economic development, population and urbanization. 青岛，是中国山东半岛南端的美丽海滨城市，是中国重要的经济中心城市、沿
23、海开放城市和国际会议城市，同时也是山东省的经济龙头城市。青岛拥有得天独厚的自然环境资源，成为驰名中外的著名旅游度假胜地。改革开放以来，青岛市经济迅速发展、区域人口持续增长、城市化进程日渐加快。 Economic development will maintain fast growth in the medium term, providing assurance and energy for the development of the property market in Qingdao. 未来青岛在中期时间内经济将继续保持快速的增长趋势，在这种经济发展的情况下，将为青岛房地产的发展带来活
24、力和保证。 Due to increasing disposable incomes, consumers are becoming increasingly more demanding of an improved quality of life. There have been more requests for retail, increasing overall retail demand. 由于消费者可支配收入的增长，消费需求也将有所增加，人们不再满足温饱生活，从原来将就的生活状态逐步提高到讲究的生活品质，在消费渴望进一步增长的背景下，人们对商业的要求也越来越高，这将持续刺激零售业
25、需求的增长。 Through great efforts put into tourism, and the continuous growth in the demand for business facilities, more and more companies have been attracted to carry out business exhibitions, marketing and travelling activities in Qingdao. This strongly supports the tourism and retail market in Qingd
26、ao. 由于旅游业的大力发展和商务需求的不断增长，商务洽谈活动和企业会议度假市场将逐步发展和繁荣，会议场所设施将进一步完善，吸引越来越多的企业来青岛举办各种商务展览、宣传和度假活动，从而更加有利的支持青岛旅游、商业市场的发展。 The increase in disposable income per capita resulting from economic growth has stimulated development of the residential market, increased demand for retail properties and has stimulate
27、d the growth of small-sized private companies. The demand for office properties will therefore grow significantly in the coming years. 经济的增长直接影响的就是人均可支配收入的增加，人均收入的增加促进了住宅房地产的发展、商业消费需求的增加以及小型私人企业数量的增加，从而带到办公物业需求的增长。Table 2.1: Implications for the Property Market from Economic Growth 表2.1：经济增长对物业市场的影响
28、Items 因素Residential Demand 住宅需求Retail Demand 商业需求Office Demand 写字楼需求The increase of mid- and small-sized private companies GDP增长带动中小型公司数量的增加Increase of Disposable Incomes 可支配收入增长Increase of Consumption Expenses 消费性支出增长Increase of Foreign Investment 外商投资的增长Host of Olympic Games 奥运会的举办Development of T
29、ourism Market 旅游业的发展Source: CB Richard Ellis 资料来源：世邦魏理仕 From Table 2.1, we can see that the stable and quick development of Qingdaos economy will promote the development of the property market. The charm and vigour of Qingdao will be more widely recognized through the combination of good city planni
30、ng and the hosting of the Olympic Games. Opportunities for residential, retail and office sectors of the property market are therefore immense. 通过表2.1可以清晰的看出，青岛经济的稳定快速增长，将大大刺激青岛各类型物业市场的发展。相信青岛在良好的规划及奥运的推动下，其活力与魅力将会更加被国内及世界所认知，促进城市发展的同时也带来了住宅、商业、写字楼的发展商机。3.1Residential Sector 住宅市场3.1.1 Overall Market
31、 整体市场 The existing stock is unable to meet the demand for residential property. This provides a good opportunity to develop high-end residential properties within the project. 从青岛现有住宅历年供应情况来看，供应量还远远不能满足市场需求，本项目发展居住类物业有较大的市场空间。 A large part of the demand for residential property comes from people out
32、side of Qingdao mainly for holiday purpose and investment purpose. As the project is relatively close to the coast, it will also be attractive to purchasers who wish to buy for their own use as a holiday resort. The project is also close to the CBD of Qingdao, which will further enhance the confiden
33、ce of prospective purchasers wishing to invest. 由于青岛具有独特的自然景色，其住宅需求有很大部分来自于外省市，这些外地购买者主要以度假和投资为主要目的。本项目离海较近，具备一定的景观优势，因此对度假或自住型购买者有一定的吸引力，同时，本项目临近青岛自然形成的商务区，看好区域未来发展潜力的投资者也将对本项目有很大信心。 Given that the land close to the coast is decreasing year by year, there is great potential to add value to the proj
34、ect with the development of high-end apartments. 随着临海土地资源的逐年减少，土地的稀缺性越来越明显，未来本项目所在区域的升值潜力巨大，为高档公寓的开发奠定基础。3.1.2 Area Market 区域市场 The area where the project will be located has had other, earlier, developments. It is estimated that the peak of new supply will occur in 2006. It is recommended that the
35、project should develop products with high quality and a reasonable price to try to avoid competition risks in the market. 项目所在区域开发时间较早，目前已初具规模，预计2006年将是该区域的另一次供应集中期。本项目应抓住区域市场更新换代的机会，推出具有前瞻性、性价比更高的产品，促进市场的成熟发展，最大程度的避免未来的竞争风险。 Middle and small sized units in the market gradually turn up with high pri
36、ce per square metre, low total price and good market performance. They can meet the demands of purchasers and investors outside Qingdao. The residential component of the project should supply this type of product. 中小户型陆续出现在区域市场上，单价高，总价低，销售状况良好，符合外地购房者、投资客等的需求目的，可做为本项目住宅产品的市场参考。3.1.3 Competitor Analy
37、sis 竞争分析 The future competitor will consider aspects including scale, accessibility, landscape, planning parameters, and a pleasant environment for people. It is estimated that the residential products will be mainly positioned as luxurious and comfortable apartments. The project is comparatively we
38、ak in terms of outside resources, and should therefore be differentiated from its competitors. 未来竞争项目在社区规模、交通状况、景观特色、规划指标、人文环境、开发商知名度等方面各有特色，因此住宅产品预计以豪华、舒适型自住公寓为主。与竞争项目相比，本项目的外部资源略现不足，因此在产品设计时应进行错位，提高产品的竞争力。 The apartment component of the project should focus attention on developing small to medium
39、sized units to reduce the economic burden for potential purchasers. In addition, because the high floors of the project will have sea views, it is recommended that some larger sized units are designed for these floors to diversify the product. 针对未来豪宅及舒适型住宅较多的特点，本项目在公寓产品方面应该注重发展中小户型，降低本项目买家的经济承受能力。同时
40、，本项目在较高楼层也会有较好的海景资源，因此也可以适当放开户型面积，填补区域内经济型自住和投资型客群的空白，使得公寓产品具有多样化，客群广泛化的特点。 It is suggested that the residential product for this project should provide the following elements in order to add value, establish a good image and have good market performance in association with the project: make use of
41、coastal views, have an appropriate unit style, with comfort, practicability and a reasonable price. 本项目住宅部分的产品应该依靠景观特色的挖掘、户型设计的合理性、舒适性、实用性和合理的价格优势来赢得市场，保证各个户型的均好性，尽量提高项目的景观价值，利用周边便利且完善的配套设施塑造精品公寓的概念。凭借优良的品质提升项目形象及品牌知名度，扩大潜在消费群体，满足不同目的购房者的购房需求。3.1.4 Demand Analysis需求分析 It is considered that a develop
42、ment comprising solely residential units is not ideal for the area due to the relatively well-established business and retail environment. It is too risky to develop large sized units or luxury units with coastal views based upon the current circumstances in the area. Developing small efficient apar
43、tments is in line with demand trends in Qingdao. 从专业人士的访谈来看，他们均认为本项目所在地区为发展较为成熟的区域，物业类型多种多样，商务及商业氛围均较为成熟，同时也给纯居住性社区的开发带来了一定的不利影响。区域目前的现状导致本项目发展大户型住宅或观景豪宅的市场可行性较低，从青岛市区内住宅的需求动向看，小户型公寓产品符合青岛需求构成的特征，面向群体广泛，未来市场风险较小。 There are at present many expensive high-end residential projects but with mediocre qua
44、lity, developed using rare coastal views. As the market matures in the future, successful products will be those which have a high price / quality ratio. 依托青岛稀缺的海景，青岛高档住宅市场呈现价位高、品质却不高的特点，在住宅市场日趋成熟的市场环境下，前瞻性的产品应具有较高的性价比，使购房者在同等价位的条件下购买到更多的价值。 The units facing south have better views. This should be t
45、aken into account so as to provide diversified products in order to raise the compatibility with market demands. The design of the units should also be able to meet the needs of various prospective purchasers and to provide comfortable, economic and practical products.本项目面南的户型具有较好的景观优势，因此本项目公寓的开发应该注
46、重充分挖掘此项优势，提供多样化的产品，提高市场竞争力。户型设计应注重满足不同买家的购房需求，扩大公寓部分的潜在客群，提供具有较高居住舒适性、经济性和实用性公寓产品。3.2Retail Sector商业市场3.2.1 Overall Market 整体市场 The bulk of the retail market in Qingdao consists of department stores and specialized markets, which lack the features of F&B, leisure and entertainment facilities, provid
47、ing good opportunities for the retail component of this project. 青岛目前的商业业态比较单一，百货和专业市场占有率非常高，但特色餐饮和休闲娱乐类业态供应较少，消费者对新事物的接受能力非常强，因此一些特色和缺乏的业态和品牌将会有非常好的市场需求，这为本项目的商业发展提供了空间。 The new supply of retail properties in Qingdao is tremendous and the competition in the future will be intense. It is recommended
48、 that the new retail project should pay attention to the positioning of the area, cooperate and compete with retail properties in the area, and more importantly, target various segments of the market and differentiate itself from competitors. 青岛未来商业供应体量也非常大，导致商业竞争的加剧，这就要求新的商业项目的发展应依托于整个商业区域的定位，重视同商业区中与其
