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2、YN,产56口,DFObod,“亡20237干宣NO,P.QgIHiiJk20mnFZQ0ko04,pcoRSi-AS%ScOfl,ErsIt5Suvw,xyzE-.宣Q4%o*&三J-,d,I直占_iAAHQ4AHE;AEO9%0*ECEZU#s二二百台QVY、尸C3X二;yoE2021e6fi#T百昌Cfl二!#fpi:!$%S,56T!Im一v!,S,Z1f7(T9fiyeeej-QiEoooui三JQuu三u三D。$2021-2030eo3。IFB啕;$%&5%E2022e3e#!”丫OfI二2022e$%&ClYa56o才uE0*60d,iDOo“土$%&%三56口NP,Qg,mnF
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5、3716.1 56To78716.2.1 I)Iu746.2.2 DnO56756.2.3 3r?II乙786.3j7826.3.1 6dVr826.3.2 6O,4jFIdO836.3.3 6Ofd,4jFG-X:;846.3.4 Gs=+=,3-4%o=+=EToEHUTEH:ENO6piEE7V,UggLj,-:-.Og-EY三D,.一QRfiA,#$A,0+0台!6F1,4jf+T*OY1.1.1 电网发展历程二百二二I9yTN台.。谷台Eqe)009EDA-XE78EOgMjF(T二二9J7GU1 jF(了台一jF(TE9f19TTT%*,f5o-zjFC含。Ag,6g1882goe
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8、i!ia#haEMJ6O,-p,96oAIz;1tfA1.1.2 中国电网概况+二二-ju-23SA,A-Jtu,1.i!OO,zjY23YR,pi7BII,uJ7T,a23*-,IYF,OAQ4U496o21TT,-.OYOO,U70,73OUVUO,7(TEAI二;_jz,_J二AU7Ee%o,*E0kAf=3k,V-4.,a0keLJa,aeB#$ECpeA.EU#Mjfz-,fiA,7HzV,YRpi,j:Upi,/二;O)j,a4Eu-,-t二:ewzp.%&自E,#ClNAz,*E/-EgoeE%y-1-O7%*ob,uMf(TTEz-ACO$%PT*Cl4vHE;#$AtOfiV
9、oflEQ4O1,zT!mSxzTSME;EOVr/TtO-56EsBM一&,,十EYR三-vuE-,;EO-Ho.%*三-iM#$A_Zo-OiH#$AZ99.820%EyeFG三fi,E7EsBo1Xe5tE二:小b。4-,)u)e%5+EA2A,H1X!-fiX,一634,YZNOXUUg-IA6Q4aV56M三*-8-tA三oAU:-SAcFo8Zbzuu,z二?口GqkJ,Y=nA,I.7H,AlACiPl=pi+sUt,FGAEDOBfiDEOuFE%cf三,/G-C三HXEo,;IIAeQBfiDE_0CiF/EM%f,/,c4JKFEM56j7三8Zt-tOEew2,ew,zo
10、oEgOJ7EF8h二/t5Oj7zk2-so-Y20P,8h,z二XQyR二1二8/bz;SCEz三sSu三Nr合ACTU=+uV-二O;IUWXiO(三)-F,sozz-WX二PllTrUPa4,%o*AYAOYZYZm-WO.亡jf%十丁BN十5口1_刊=|=*产Gfi1!Ee%*-C-c5,34kJ7,EG-To二;$%_T百1e%4o61X60fiDEh$1o1X:-fEYoorLjMLjeTaE-,YZoIXLjM-vG4kEMY100fiDofEM,ZG4jrDO600DEMG4REMlS%DY,!3SE7SoxzCT,t5一odTHh(T,MJ9*U,O#Q4uE1.2+,r.
11、/JEE-fzXCigJefi523yR,u二ahz2Nj_j,yk.L,/J,*E,ATEdv一Xmfl/nY-hopATEqS,o?IsUB百入一PEXIVIrn-hA-op,Eos3三wAxa1yN1Vk乙+d十2030eOxbl,J7cJl2060DO,OTu-hAropTDOE乙兀o*W9*乙口二#PXE80%$1ujJ29*Lug9*UoLlf40%UDC.百合!,一于合-WA,ocF-0,!Xp,0rooENO、PAQVUSA.FcFCT,u,自Qs,-E(g)A,u,g,96o*(,AE8EfH(W,uMJ7(T三66o,x三o,zWtm,660-.,$o8yRy,J79=+=
12、YZAEU0,V0E-ABAWn%o,。,A,oe,NO4,ECEAEsBF7(T-b%o4一AOYNU,-g*s3AYooYRS%D,OY(LJM-*Obocdy,h-$%Dg;zt56Eto,goRo一二-!lf50%,B/kXAEUO,,je,-Oo-tjzoUBt-.eV,B%o,VOy,GTJfi二WiJ,OCEA6,_cFHI,6O,i-i4jyg7(TOQ9,MJSi51sU(三u口百。.谷二口131X三YXV,A_中国人工智能系列白皮书一一智慈电网iTrAHTA三*AuQEsB,o一二H-011A,才XT!W;OY/。AI:MKum-s=+=SoQ9,Y/2,一(TST/?ri
13、oOc,/:?UyeEO-11.Ejgb96o4frfl,R1sOaE81flkz%oAO。口,占U+二;EoTtEsBmJ(tVZ,a.=!=4%oOSh,-T23oA,二:二Eop,Y/NuDQ*,A二百A7f/-E:Wjc=一6,e%oj1%一6AfYK02口+9*21SEs3,eDOX:;EiugT.1.312345678$%D/o?e4W_-$tD9/EfUu,sf5T_0e,TF-tyREz-ES%D,ePE,AI!zwTi!11U!D!Au,d,b,S%D,5e,eo-30EAEIE6e,-frL4AEE49VII,AAEVt三O三fiH,VO,CZOS6n,iEYZEe,0,-
14、FAi,OySIUAEzEr-EH$/E三JOE6EAIU0F-A(CNN*,boUNAigSyEi三TrGfiIl且ACL土_V+56UxwTIOS),WOn!i,zBvwT,于U$七丁。上丁“干/31包49,SvwtioSeOOniOoEJaYZ,DOvEJa/LD,uizOExzwTio=I=TL!PsV?EL!oJzB30%oEvwI.=+=,RFZ6flE.i(O5NM,vwl_IOEz-2Li,tPHN,boHNUEHhULJfXL9YZ,o6TU,*F11NUmLJ,u%o,49H,UVL110LJS4UoOn,U-r-Ez-_,kZY*i5ZEEO1lU_p)VL!NaeVL!
15、VtOU,tOUUo0,fUOU,OSZfUESoYZO11,96oES0-oi,-f=VL三-VE9YZ,OH-xDEF,_EpHNo*三HhoX三sCUOE0510LJE0H0Ug-FdOH三SocFI=QCL_V+56U/合-06$%0中3joq49自TfUgesyJT/oq,$%D#$f&4丫NL!Yll!-0入台,/辛1人右后D,VSsd三r-zi三T,U4,=!=DC)D,-CEV-FfEoo,S-,OI,SfUA0EYOUUCE8;gr0.土.0-#$-4/1CNoe,r-ziSo,*-fiA,*-6,ZOEEAae-EOEAU三EYZ,eDEC,AeeE,aeBToA-*-tO
16、-fzs,FUAU,SASr-!8!,ODE$bYeeEC49e_,/+EOEAUSe-toCT2O,io656在乙OhgOkl-F,OAU,EO,#$OogOfiA,/EopED(B),-FOBEfiflUU,#$”干.EWFAV,P96oDCZB+56-WF入-,a3,ZS%D,56iyRoEeOHhEBS%D,ez-,D,(三)g23-合,4L=I=-O-Ek9O,J7!O,EF(g)E1.41234&:;人工智能技术S%D,O9flz-oBV,QPUNOtoUNqO,S%D,23,4,u*%tz%oNybLJ-EOgAN%ofy各4/0Li一,AHA$-tzAaX!aFGyaOaIE计
17、算机视觉自然语言处理强化学习大模翱术图11人工智能技术改善决策制定S%D,*Az%o,-FiAE%D,S-%oAEE三oJE36.。一n%Of,fiAELo.$%D#$OvYZVL,KAStSAEp,dJ7A%oO-T一,一入2%U%2o#$o6$%D%,P$96ovtz%oM,一n%OfiA,一1DS%D,4*ZOS%D,Sfi,LoEYZ96o4I5UO1OEi,0,OU.S三4IASSAz%oES%D,aSm6TL=l=,VLTSeT,zroOrYZ,a4z5LJOdI3S%D,j一,AS%O,j一y%oUUDOEAE0,v16%ooS%D,%oEkU*,tU$IOBZ#E$%D-eOD
18、E-ODEU0U,I-,96o-eE*AE$%D=1=aA$1LN入台XU$%D*aU56#$合4$oEN入台X左乙o,OI,*/:$OSYZIxxE,Ct=-N入E百OAU$%Da#$。4$OO-fi8Oog,-0,-FVl_,YZ96oiTA,一JUS%DI,O2030e,$%D#Oa13fi/JneFGXb1之-oofl$%D,9*56,BS%D,uM02+=Otd,EM,To二u!u!,AkM!C.j!O!So!11UOtmt-,zrtAI!zwTi!O1I0lJ!D,Uo56fc=!=V,S0SD,fi6Oz%oFR4三fi/7l,y口才RS一于SO-DOpi-mt,j_DyomO4
19、,H4,B瓶一于CieJ一:FHliJ一:FCOQcl?56ZJ.04$土O,uM-E0*Obod,$土D,56zV(,AYF020.)fi0)2.13&$(sB(2ELJ,OMcF-),Ko!,UIO8h-1-,AO,E:;DorQzpEAkTA,sB-gMFGA234CFe百工二1台X一、Tel百工;1o-IWg二PlAT9U,DO7r;4:4a-UizF$t$=!=D,RogOycF,#$/e,:jSoDU、,DO,zLjD,23a,WLJu,AD,-o2. 1.1广域互联新能源智慧发电ABoje,z%o8uSY,0,uU“口(了V-I-H,-FroYZVI_$=!=D,VLDOhJr-
20、.uM,XkSfco-;EQ9,cF2.1.2分布式新能源智慧发电OflHV,三n%oJ一巨r8。十E.U-CEqK一,0%=h+,aYN一$DOCj=|=a,DOV,cF,!中匚*十一,AMalul8一一.=FOokM0w/百一ek,.E(B)-TOhIU$h,Q9JT0AM0U十2N3oT4_5一86二70-89oe,o?Q6D,AsT%9$QmDQEoog-,$土A#$56名$%_T百14S,vQ,5riAEflTy.,?/EOOTj,-FS=!=D,A,vEIyJ?u_A%o_,L-BC丫4-50Q,f4FrfJ4OLJ,$zEIUDEX37fF/lVI3二|7-GHO)1J,%9SQ
21、mr5KAe-fl,TyDlL,#$zV色i8”-口y口一CLAfUopo5R8T_48*HuEYZ,#$uYblOYZ49N9,4A-80)EAQzO=EeF2.3.1新能源功率预测sBi5QlStEI%oLo,*oh-oUOA1.#ClNA百。OA*q)NOofI,CO-,z;r_02-fzr,N-Li,QRzMREEsArA42#YA0u,Z-TEEQ9SoShM,X%oRz1,UU7k-#$E;EOQ9oHQR=A#$_filQRzMu-(TEX0-STLJzf。ETUU,3ovNseVYW00,SDE9YZ49C,十6,YN占C,49/KOHo(0)Z-tTUU,$=!=D,aUEv
22、OUN/OR,WuEXY49SgQeOpiAOHe+56oYl-QR:MAOlleEOQ94丁人,口一十CNN4BiGRUQR:mAOHaCNN-BiGRUuQQRz(g)A49UoZJ一60F-A4。YEBn(BidirectiontlGatedRecurrentUnit,BiGRU=+=,WQ-8YZShYblYZzfiVZUYZeE,4puQo2.3.1.1数据预处理uWYZO49三EieblogCQ“_匚一999E,6blU9。k.uCiQO49CiQatouQR449%ooA2-1十CNN4BiGRUEQRz,A-F,#CNN4。GRUgTF-ABoCNN6%oJ-YZLeCiO,“
23、oGRU一13%。,YNqWelei图2-1基于CNN和BiGRU的光伏发电功率预测模型结构图0#oeA-%o-A-T49YZo,E,g%oDAYZ,E/;YNo0QF2EUQR二uAAX6E,oA49yua3-_j0eO(三)Q49oh,kiL-o-EoXoB%oiBoXg;ABa4,uQU*d,IOE,uuoXoCNN,CJ,uQ(三-u%o4oGRU,51ZYN白卷o4,op)CjQogGRUj”,2Qplo(SIBo+E,m*OYZEBouu0)U36,z,OppHECJ4ko丫N4。丫M台JGRUae1nzUy,OGRUo/yjyT0#a0#/Eo一/9*23,RyT00Eo一/11
24、*23,K二T0E0#/Eo/24*23oJTBoGRUJEauva,BnY二/88oZyU-tLJ_gfiA,06(0)uj1XOf一三)ciDSAOfxpouHw*,$txo-iuOUwZWxo,CNN-BiGRU49yDUUt4A,WXo2. DLJ+yVLDUuCNN-BiGRUf49AHyoDUUy-i-yoA2-2YoA,ZIz11YZpLjQRzpiACA,-,-tM9D二mUA,RM9OH:mUAoNAtC11M4D台丰。IIblUD当bl3Boh七UECNN-BiGRUCn1。图22CNN-BiGRU模型预测功率图4A./WxJ1-1DyE,7o,EU一ZL,tOCNN-Bi
25、GRU-JQjLSTM-CNNXGBoostEWX-obi,LJO+V。”2-1To表2-1光伏发电功率评估指标对比$%Ns0+1234TfQQ:;?2ABOOS.-./O=?2AB0LSTM-CNN0.2460.7540.6061.307XGBooxt0.2721.0490.3140.504CNN-BiGRU0.140.4930.2840.086#2-1#u,TJEUWXoblOIT十UQJo国XOaf-444(Ol4DAO一“o%,XGBoostEHA,LSTM-CNNCNN-BiGRUOHfiySloCl三j1XOf一”o%,CNN-BiGRU01.STM-CNNIy10.6%“,/十X
26、GBoostF:+yIy13.2%Eg!OxpouH4xouHwo%,LSTM-CNN,XGBoosto,CNN-BiGRUj5百1oN,A4,LJECNN-BiGRUf三UWX%CiO12.3.1.4主要成效ZyQRzmAOUEoTCNN4BiGRUEQRzuAOUaU,-yEdoo”fuij1XOf“一口0台Ao百rxpo-UOUW,$|zx行3-UOHwP-WxoVLyLSTM-CNN_XGBoostUOUJg-YYZO1EOHdo,DU+V”XNN-BiGRUtJ,UEu-y,oneOiJ0QhUOsc5NBSxHo40AopyeVQRUB96o0,aX2-,o$.fiHh!OOU4U才TEceVQRD,B%o56.g902.3.2.1分布式光伏接入需求1. A巨;匚(DY/V(g)“QRB%o8hAV,(g)ATAY,%oTA,-三AYZ,%oHo,LopANd-;o2. pi-E;oO/W二Pl合入y+tso/8,AAT6*8U二NOY2#6Y,-(TQQYqN台4Xt4acr。+1O,EAV一.f%oAEUS0$百各4jSoZ75,BWoM0-