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1、McKinsey&CompanyAutomotive&AssemblyPracticeWilltoday,senvironmentaffectvehiclepurchasedecisionsforUSconsumers?TheeconomicenvironmenthasUSconsumersrethinkingtheirnextcarpurchase.AtthesametimezinterestinenvironmentallyfriendlyvehiclesContinuestogrow.byNataschaBuresch,RussellHensley,NicholasLaverty,and
2、FelixRupallaDecember2023About the surveyIn June 2023, we surveyed lz029 US consumers, all of whom owned at least one car in their household, with 50 percent of respondents owning more than one. About 20 percent of respondents already owned an electric vehicle (EV) (including battery EVs, plug-in hyb
3、rid EVs, and fuel-cell EVs). Forty-one percent of respondents had a household income of less than $5,000 per month; the average US household income in 2022 was $6,200 per month? (With the average price of cars currently purchased hovering around $48,000, this cost is equivalent to about eight months
4、 of salary.2),Median household income in the United States, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 12, 2023.2 Kelley Blue Book analysis: Average new-vehicle transaction price in June posts smallest annual gain in nearly 4 years/ Kelley Blue Book, July 11,2023.Ifyoufeelasthoughyoureseei
5、ngmoreelectriccarsontheroad,itsbecauseyouare.Electricvehicle(EV)registrationsintheUnitedStateshaveincreased45percentannuallysince2017,withUScoastalstatesleadinginconsumerdemand.1Thisgrowthcanbepartiallyattributedtoimprovingcharginginfrastructure,moreandbettermodelsfromwhichtochoose,andEVcostimprovem
6、entsovertime.Forinstance,researchfromMcKinseyBatteryInsightsshowsthatbatterycellcoststodayarejustone-thirdofwhattheywereadecadeago.Regulatorychangesaimedathelpingthecountryachieveitsemission-reductiontargets,suchastheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,sairpollutionprogramsandthefederalInflationReductionAct
7、,havealsolikelyplayedarole.Yetconsumersarefacingmountingfiscalpressurethatcouldaffecttheirpurchasedecisions.Interestratesareupfrom0.05percentinearly2022to5.33percenttoday.2Andtheaverageannualcostofowningacarforthefirstfiveyearshassurpassed$12,000,upfromabout$10,700in2022;thatis16percentofthemedianho
8、useholdincomebeforetaxes.3Tobetterunderstandtheimpactoncarbuyers,wesurveyedmorethan1,000consumers,representingaverageUScarbuyers(seesidebar,Aboutthesurvey).ThesurveyrevealedthatwhilethecurrenteconomicenvironmentmayhavepeoplerethinkingEVandothercarpurchasesintheshortterm,EVinterestcontinuestogrow.The
9、futureisstillelectricitmayjusttakelongertogetthere.PeopleexpecttodelaynewpurchasesforbothEVsandothercarsbecauseofreducedpurchasingpowerThecurrenthigh-interest-rateenvironmenthaslikelyreducedpurchasingpowerforalargeshareofUSconsumers.Seventy-sevenpercentofrespondentsnotedthatreducedpurchasingpowerisc
10、ausingthemtoeitherpostponelargeexpensesorbemoreconsciousaboutspending.Carpurchasesarelikelytobeaffected:nearly40percentofrespondentswhohadintendedtobuyavehiclearepostponingthatpurchase,whileaquarterplaninsteadtopurchaseamoreaffordablecartype(Exhibit1).Notably,buyersconsideringanEVsaidtheywerelessinc
11、linedtodelaytheirpurchaseorchooseamoreaffordableoption,insteadshowingmoreinterestinextendedfinancingoptions.Fewrespondentsareplanningtoentirelyabandonexistingplanstopurchaseacar,butthosewhoarecitehighcarprices,lackofaffordability,andhighinterestratesforfinancingasreasonsfortheirdecision.Currentecono
12、micfactorsincreaseinterestinfinancingWhenbuyinganewvehiclein2023,about80percentofbuyersintheUnitedStateschosetofinance,whileabout20percentchosetopurchaseoutright.4ComparedwithDecember2022,fewerpeopletodayexpecttopurchasefuturecarsoutright(43percentversus53percentin2022),andrespondentsexpressedgrowin
13、ginterestincreditfinancingandleasingthoughfinancingbecomes,Vehicleregistrationcountsbystate/*USDepartmentofEnergyAitemativeFuelsDataCenter,2022.llEffectivefederalfundsrate/FederalReserveBankofNewYork,accessedOctober30,2023.BrittanyMoyer4lAnnuaInewcarownershipcostsboiloverS12K,AAANewsroomzAugust30,20
14、23;GloriaGuzmanandMelissaKollarfIncomeintheUnitedStates:2022/USCensusBureau,September12r2023.StateoftheautomotivefinancemarketQ22023,Experian,August31,2023.Exhibit1Economicfactorsandinterestratesarereducingconsumerpurchasingpower,leadingUSconsumerstopostponecarpurchases.Impactofhigh-interest-rateenv
15、ironmentontimingandtypeofvehiclepurchase,%ofrespondentsPostpone purchaseNon-electric-vehicle(EV)nsiderersEVsiderersAbandonpurchase6+2Chooseflexibleownership(eg,subscription)70Extendfinancingtoreducemonthlypayments9+3Doesnotaffectme16+2Buymoreaffordablecar(eg,smallerorused)24-4Note:Figuresdonotsumto1
16、00%,becauseofrounding.Question:HowdidtherecentseininterestratesandtheoverallUSeconomicsituationaffectyou?Question:Whatisthelikelyeffectofincreasedinterestratesandhighercarpricesonyourcarpurchasingdecisionnow?Source：McKJnseyCenterforFutureMobilityUSCarBuyerSentimentPulseSurvey2023.n=1,029,conductedJu
17、ly21-24McKInsey&CoayThecurrenthigh-interest-rateenvironmenthaslikelyreducedpurchasingpowerforalargeshareofUSconsumers.moreexpensivewithhigherinterestrates(Exhibit2).Atthesametime,thelandscapeofautofinancingisbecomingincreasinglycomplex:consumersareworriedaboutunstableresidualvalueforEVsbecauseofevol
18、vingbatterytechnology,energyprices,andgovernmentsubsidies?Together,theseconcernscouldslowtheshifttoEVsforsomeconsumers.Consumerinterestinfinancingcouldbeviewedasareflectionofgrowingaffordabilityconcerns,especiallyforEVs,whichhavehigherpurchaseprices.However,wealsoobservedanunwillingnesstosacrificeon
19、certainfeatures:30to50percentofrespondentsclaimedtheyareverylikelytoprioritizevehiclesize,premiumbrands,orhighertrimwhenpurchasinganewvehicle.Itcouldbethatthebalanceofconsumersiswillingtocompromisegivenreducedpurchasingpower.Asforwherethey,remakingpurchases,dealershipscontinuetoplayasignificantrolei
20、ntheUScarbuyingexperienceandinfinancing:about70percentofrespondentspurchasedtheirlastvehicleatadealership,and40percentsoughtfinancingthroughadealershiporOEM.5Dataandanalyticsinthedrlver,sseatoftheused-carmarket,McKInsey1August30,2023.Exhibit2MoreUScarbuyersplantofinancetheirnextvehicleasoutrightpurc
21、hasesbecomelessaffordable.OwnershippreferencesofUScarowners,%ofrespondentsNote： Figures may not sum to 100%. because of rounding.1 Question： How do you currently own your primary household vehicle?2Question: When you get your next car. which ownership form will you most Iikety target?3IncIudes long-
22、term rentals.Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility US Car BuyerSentiment Pulse Survey 2023, n 1,029, conducted July 21-24; Stoteofthe automotive finance market Q2 2023l Experian/ June 2023McKinsey&CompanyDespiteaffordabilityconcerns,USconsumersexpressgrowingintenttopurchaseEVsDespitemanypeople
23、puttingthebrakesonnew-carpurchases,EVpurchaseintentamongUScarbuyerscontinuestogrow：roughlyone-thirdofUScarownerssaidtheirnextcarpurchasewillbeanelectricorhybridvehicle,up10percentfromDecember2022(Exhibit3).FewerUScarbuyersarestrictlyopposedtoswitchingtoEVszwithjustone-quarterexpressingthisresistance
24、comparedwith30percentinDecember2022.Thesurveyalsorevealedan8percentdecreaseinpeoplewhointendtobuyoneormorenewinternal-combustion-engine(ICE)vehicles,suggestingthatdemandisshiftingtowardelectrificationamongnew-carpurchases.Atthesametime,thesurveyrevealeda40percentincreaseinpeoplewhoexpecttopurchaseon
25、emoreusedICEvehiclebeforeswitchingtoEVs.RisinginterestratesandreducedpurchasingpowermightthereforedelaythespeedofEVuptakeatleastintheshortterm.Interestingly,despitehavinglowerpurchasingpower,agreaterproportionofyoungerconsumerswouldconsideranEVfortheirnextcarcomparedwitholderconsumers(50percentand29
26、percent,respectively).Exhibit3USintenttopurchaseelectricvehiclesisslowlyincreasing,butmanypeopleexpecttobuyoneormoreinternal-combustion-enginecars.Purchaseintentbypowertraintype,%ofrespondentsNextvehicleisabatteryelectricvehicle(EV)Nextvehicleisaplug-inhybridEVOnemoreusedinternal-combustion-engine(I
27、CE)vehicleOnemorenewICEvehicleAfewmoreICEvehiclesbeforeswitchingtoanEVDonotwanttoswitchtoEVNote:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becau5eofrounding.Question:HowmanymoretraditionalCombushon-enginevehiclesdoyouconsiderbuyingbeforeswitchingtoanelectricvehicle?Source:AnnualMCKiMeyCenterforFutureMobility(MCFM)Consu
28、merSurvey2022,globaln三27,869,December2022;MCFMUSCarBuyerSentimentPulseSurvey2023,n=1,029,conductedJuly21-24McKinsey&CompanyDiscountscouldspurcarpurchasesintheUnitedStatesAbouthalfofUScarbuyerswouldconsiderpurchasinganEViftherightsubsidieswereprovided.Basedonoursurveyresults,theaveragepre-COVID-19sal
29、esdiscountof10percentcouldpotentiallyunlock18percentagepointsofadditionalcarbuyers,whileadiscountofmorethan15percentmightincreasedemandbyatleast25percentagepoints(Exhibit4).GiventhatdiscountsforEVstendtobehigherthanICEequivalents,someincreaseddemandshouldbeexpectedfromrisingEVincentives.Forcontext,c
30、urrentOEMincentivesareabout4percentforICEvehiclesandroughly7percentExhibit4ManyUSconsumerswouldbemotivatedtopurchasecarsifgreaterdiscountswereoffered.Potential unlock in demand due to sales discounts, % of respondentsQuestion: At which level of purchase subsidies would you consider buying a new car
31、now, concerning current affordability levels? Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility US Car Buyer Sentiment Pube Survey 2023, n 1,029, conducted July 21-24McKinsey&CompanyFind more content like this on theMcKinsey Insights AppScan Download PersonalizeforEVs.6Governmentsubsidiessuchasthecleanveh
32、iclecredit,7whichcanamounttoupto$7,500pervehiclecouldpotentiallyplayaroleinspurringdemand.8Someofthesesubsidiesmightalsofurtherinfluenceconsumerswhentheyconsiderhowtopurchasetheirvehicles.Inthecaseofthecleanvehiclecredit,qualifyingforthefullcredithasfewerrequirementswhenleasingavehiclethanwhenfinanc
33、ingone.9Consumersarefacingreducedpurchasingpower,whichmayslowtheirshifttoelectrifiedmobilityintheshortterm.However,oursurveyalsorevealedconsumerresilienceinautodemandandEVs.This,combinedwiththefactthattheoveralleconomicsforEVscontinuetoimprove,suggeststhemomentofpausecouldbefleeting.nKeIIeyBlueBooka
34、nalysis:Averagenew-vehidetransactionpriceinJunepostssmallestannualgaininnearly4years/*KelleyBlueBook,Juty11,2023.rtCIeanvehicletaxcredits/InternalRevenueService,updatedonNovemberlr2023.Ibid;Xreditsfornewcleanvehiclespurchasedin2023orafter/InternalRevenueService,June22,2023.“Creditsfornewcleanvehicle
35、s/June22r2023;KeithBarry,nrLeasinganelectriccarmaybeabetterdealevenafterFordandTeslapricecuts/*ConsumerReports,September1,2023.AbouttheMcKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityTheseinsightsweredevelopedbytheMcKinseyCenterforFutureMobility(MCFM).Since2011,theMCFMhasworkedwithstakeholdersacrossthemobilityecosys
36、tembyprovidingindependentandintegratedevidenceaboutpossiblefuture-mobilityscenarios.Withourunique,bottom-upmodelingapproach,ourinsightsenableanend-to-endanalyticsjourneythroughthefutureofmobilityfromconsumerneedstomodalmixacrossurban/ruralareas,sales,valuepools,andlifecyclesustainability.Findoutmore
37、abouttheMcKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityonMcK.NataschaBureschisasolutionmanagerinMcKinse/sNewYorkoffice;RussellHensleyisapartnerintheDetroitoffice,whereNicholasLavertyisasolutionassociatepartner;andFelixRupallaisasolutionassociatepartnerintheStuttgartoffice.TheauthorswishtothankDestonBarger,PrasadGanorkar,NickInchaustegui.NicolaasKramer,SoukaynaLakhsassi,IngaMaurer,TimoMoller,andTitaRamosfortheircontributionstothisarticle.DesnedbyMcKinseyGlobalPublishingCopyright2023McKInsey&Company.Allrightsreserved.
