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1、Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024StayingthecourseamidupheavalRAlN&COMPANYAuthorsandacknowledgmentsThisreportwaspreparedby：Sebastien1.amy,aBain&CompanypartnerbasedinTokyoandcoleaderofthefrm,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice；1.achlanMcMurdo,apartnerbasedinMelbourneandamemberofBain,sAustraliaPrivate
2、Equitypractice；andElsaSit,practicevicepresidentwithBain,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice.TheauthorswishtothankKikiYang,coleaderofBain,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice,forheroverallguidance；WonpyoChoi,KukhyoeKoo,BenMacTiernan,AlexBoulton,andDavidZehnerfortheirperspectivesonimprovingportfolioexitv
3、alue；BrendaRaineyandJohanneDessardfortheirperspectivesonassetclassdiversification；UsmanAkhtar,AlexBoulton,AndreaCampagnoli,Meng-Yang1.ee,MaiNguyen,HaoZhou,WonpyoChoi,SungwonYoon,SriwatsanKrishnan,APrabhavKashyap,AdityaMuralidhar,JamesViles,BenMacTiernan,andJimVerbeetenfortheirinputonregionaldynamics
4、；JoyMcConnochieandOwainPalmerfortheircontributions；EchoHan,DhawalPandey,SanyamSharma,ShilpiBansal,andtheteamfromtheBainCapabilityNetwork(IraKaur,MunishBasrar,VikasSharma,DeepakBhawani,ShaliniDe,SiddhantBanerjee,SaloniSingh,andKabirSinghKochar)fortheiranalyticsupportandresearchassistance；andGailEdmon
5、dsonforhereditorialsupport.WearegratefultoPreqinandAsiaVentureCapitalJournal(AVCJ)forthevaluabledatatheyprovidedandfortheirresponsiveness.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&Company
6、hasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Companysjudgme
7、nt,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesor
8、agentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.Copyright202
9、4Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024ContentsAsia-PacificPrivateEquity:Investorspulledback,anddealactivityplunged2Whathappenedin2023?5Dealsallbutstopped5Spotlightonenergyandnaturalresources9Competitionshrinks11Multiplesplunge13Exitsdropagain14Fund-raisingplummets16R
10、eturnsremainattractive21Improvingportfolioexitvalue24Findingagoodfit26Asmartapproachtoassetclassdiversification29Privatecreditandinfrastructure30Aimtooutperform33Marketdefinition36Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Asia-PacificPrivateEquity:Investorspulledback,anddealactivityplunged Thenumberofpriva
11、teequitydealsandexitsfellsharplyinmostmarketsamidongoinguncertainty. Asia-PacificPEfundsraisedjust$100billionin2023,thelowestlevelinadecade. Facedwithatoughmarket,GPsdevelopednewstrategiestofindbuyersandimproveexitvalue. Alternativeassetclassessuchasinfrastructureandprivatecreditofferagrowthopportun
12、ityforAsia-Pacific-focusedfunds.Forthesecondyearinarow,uncertaintyhoveredoverAsia-Pacificprivateequity(PE)markets.Manyinvestorsputdealmakingonholdin2023,worriedaboutslowingeconomicgrowthacrossmuchoftheregion,persistentlyhighinterestratesthatraisethecostofPEdebt,andvolatilepublicstockmarkets.Ongoingg
13、eopoliticaltensionsandglobalconflictsreinforcedinvestors*concerns.Unabletofathomwhatwasahead,fundsretrenchedtowaitoutthestorm.Theunsettlingmixofmacroeconomicconditionswasinvestors,keyconcern,accordingtoBain,s2024Asia-PacificPrivateEquitysurvey.Dealvaluefellto$147billion,extendingthedealmakingslumpth
14、atbeganin2022.Exitsplunged,andfundaisingdeclinedtoitslowestlevelin10years(seeFigure1).InvestorsremainedespeciallycautiousofbuyingcompaniesinGreaterChina,andamurkyeconomicoutlookaffectedtheentireregion.Globalgeneralpartners(GPs)reducedtheirinvestmentsinAsia-Pacificcountries,anddealsandexitsdeclined.J
15、apanwastheonlymarkettobuckthetrend,withariseindealactivity.InvestorsfoundcomfortinJapan,sdeeppooloftargetcompanieswithperformanceimprovementpotential,itsstableregulatoryenvironment,andpersistentlylowinterestrates.Technologywasagainthelargestindustrysectorintermsofdealsandexits.Theenergyandnaturalres
16、ourcessectorwastheonlyinvestmentareainwhichdealvalueandvolumegrewasignthatinvestorsareincreasinglybettingonassetsrelatedtotheenergytransition.GreaterChina,sexitsviainitialpublicofferings(IPOs)werebyfarthebiggestsourceofexitactivity,mostlyintechnology-relatedsectors(suchassemiconductors)thataretypica
17、llythedomainofgovernment-affiliatedfunds.ExcludingIPOsinGreaterChina,exitvaluefellto$65billion,down30%fromthepreviousfive-yearaverage.Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 1: Asia-Pacificdealvalue,exitvalue,andfund-raisingplungedfurtherin2023Asia-Pacificprivateequityexits($B)Asia-Pacific-focused
18、closedfunds,bycloseyear($B)Asia-Pacificprivateequityinvestments($B)201819202122Note:ExcludesrealestaleSources:AVCJ;Preqin;Bainanalysis一Exitunt2,000Grapplingwiththesixthyearinarowoflowornegativenetcashflow,limitedpartners(1.Ps)putnewallocationslargelyonhold.Manylimitedfundaisingtofundswithdemonstrate
19、dsuccess,exposuretopreferredmarkets,anddifferentiatedstrategies.AsiaPacifcPEassetsundermanagement(AUM)droppedto27%ofglobalAUM,asecondyearofdeclinefollowingmorethanadecadeofsteadyshareg,owth(SeeFigure2).Byyear-end,severalsignsofmarketimprovementbegantoappear,butthetimingofarecoveryremainsunclear.Inat
20、ionratesbeganfallinginmostmarketsafterspikingin2022.InterestratesinmostAsia-Pacificmarketsareforecasttodeclineinlate2024or2025.AndsomecurrenciesthatdepreciatedagainsttheUSdollarin2022and2023startedtorecover.Finally,stocksendedtheyearwithstrongpeiibrmanceinmostmarkets,exceptChinaandSoutheastAsia.PEre
21、turnswereabrightspotin2023,reconfirmingthatPEisstillanattractiveinvestmentclass,faroutperformingpublicmarketsover5-,10-,and20-yearhorizons.Andatyear-end,industrydatapointedtoconsistentlyhighlevelsofdrypowderintheregion,ensuringfundshaveamplecapitaltodomoredeals.Newsectorsholdpromiseoncearecoverytake
22、soff.DisruptiveinnovationslikegenerativeAIarecreatingfreshopportunities.OurresearchshowsmostGPsareusinggenerativeAltomitigaterisk,Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 2: Asia-Pacificsshareofglobalassetsundermanagementfellto27%PercentageofAsia-PacificprivateequityAUMvs.globalAsia-PacificPEAUM($T
23、)ShareofAsia-PacificPEAUMvs.global-Asia-PacificPEAUMNote:2023AUMdataasofJune2023Source:Preqinenhanceoperations,andimprovetheperformanceofportfoliocompanies.GPsalreadyarescoutingforgenerativeAIassetscomingtomarketandareassessinghowgenerativeAIcanbeusefulduringdiligenceonpotentialtargets.1.Psarestillo
24、ptimisticaboutsomecountrieswithintheregion.AccordingtoPreqin,s2023investorsurvey,thoseinvestinginprivateequityrankedJapanasoneofthetopthreedevelopedmarketsforPEinvestmentopportunitiesoverthenext12months,andIndiaandSoutheastAsiaasthetwobestemergingmarketsforinvestmentopportunities.AsGPsfacedpressuret
25、oexittheirinvestments,returncashto1.Ps,andraiseadditionalfunds,manyshiftedtheirfocustoportfoliomanagementandexitplanning.Withmultiplesdeclining,successfulfundsarebettingontop-lineg,owthandmarginimprovementtoimprovereturns.Despitedifficultexitconditions,PEfundsthatdevelopedapresalesstrategyandcompell
26、ingequitystoryfortheirportfoliocompanieswereabletoattractbuyersandexitsuccessfully,accordingtooursurvey.Inaturbulentyearforprivateequity,manyleadingfundsstartedtoexplorealternativeassetclasses,includinginfrastructureandprivatecredit,asakeysourceofgrowth.BothoftheseassetclasseshaveroomtogrowintheAsia
27、Pacificregion.Inourexperience,diversificationischallenging.Thosewhogetitrightbuildneededcapabilitiesandinvestclosetotheircorebusiness.Whathappenedin2023?DealsallbutstoppedIfinvestorshopedthedownturnindealmakingin2022wouldbeashort-termreversal,2023dashedthoseideas.Despitebriefflumesofactivity,themark
28、etcontinuedtodecline.Asia-Pacificdealvaluefellto$147billion,35%belowthepreviousfive-yearaverageand59%belowthe2021highof$359billion.Dealvalueslidtothelowestannuallevelsince2014,andthenumberofdealsdroppedunder1,300,30%lowerthanthepreviousfive-yearaverageof1,849deals.ThedevelopmentinAsia-Pacic,sPEmarke
29、tmirroredglobaltrends.Globalbuyoutdealvaluedropped34%vs.thepreviousfive-yearaverage.InChina,investorsremainedcautious.Dealvaluefell58%comparedwiththepreviousfive-yearaverage,reducingChina,sshareoftotalAsia-Pacificdealvalueto28%,downsharplyfromthepreviousfive-yearaverageof43%(seeFigure3).Economicunce
30、rtaintyalsoaffectedinvestorsinAustralia-NewZealand,SoutheastAsia,andIndia,wheredealvaluefell63%,47%,and41%,respectively,vs.thepreviousfiveyears.Eachcountrysshareoftheregionstotaldealvaluedeclined,andallthreereportedfewermegadealsthaninprioryears.SouthKoreafaredslightlybetterthanotherAsia-Pacificcoun
31、tries.Dealvaluefellbyonly20%comparedwiththepriorfiveyearaverage,increasingthecountry,sshareofdealvalue.ThebrightspotintheAsia-PacificPEmarketwasJapan,wheredealvaluerose183%overthepriorfiveyearaverage,makingittheregionsNo.1dealmarketforthefirsttime(seeFigure4).Dealsover$1billioninvalue(megadeals)were
32、thelargestfactorbehindJapanssurgeindealvalue,helpingboostthecountry,sshareoftotalAsia-Pacificdealvalueto30%,upfromthepreviousfive-yearaverageof7%.Bycontrast,Japansshareofdealcountwasjust10%,anditsnumberofdealsincreasedonly9%overthepreviousfive-year-average.SeveralfactorsmakeJapananattractivemarketfo
33、rinvestors.Animportantoneisthecountry,sdeeppooloftargetcompanieswithsignificantpotentialforperformanceimprovement.Anotheriscorporategovernancepressureonleadershipteamstodisposeofnon-coreassets,encouragingspin-offsanddivestitures.Givenitsagingpopulation,Japanisalsograpplingwithalackofsuccessioncandid
34、atestoleadagrowingnumberofcompanies,andsellingtoprivateequityfundsisincreasinglyseenasanAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 3: Japan,sshareofdealactivitygrew;China,scontinuedtorecedeShareofAsia-Pacificprivateequitydealvalue,byregion100%$128B2251478060402002013-17average201-22average2023Notes：G
35、reaterChinaincludesChina,HongKong1andTaiwan;excludesrealestateSource:AVCJFigure4:JapanistheonlyAsia-Pacificprivateequitymarketthatgrewin2023Asia-Pacificprivateequityinvestmentvalue,bymarket($B)S150B2018-22average20222023Note:ExcludesrealestateSource:AVCJAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024acceptables
36、olution.Finally,Japanboastsarelativelystableregulatoryenvironmentandpersistentlylowinterestrates.Despitetheseadvantages,Japanisacomplexmarketthatrequiresdedicatedlocalteams.Almost60%ofGPsWesurveyedinJapansaidthatrecruitingandretainingtalentwastheirbiggestconcern.Inaddition,Japanscurrencyisvolatile,a
37、ndthecountry,sPEindustryisrelativelysmall.Historically,Japanhasproducedonlyalimitednumberofdealopportunities.Forthefirsttimesince2017,buyoutsrepresentedthelargestproportionofAsia-Pacificdealvalue,pushinggrowthdealstosecondplace.Buyoutsaccountedfor48%ofdealvalue,upfromthepriorfive-yearaverageof32%(Se
38、eFigure5).Growthdealsrepresented41%ofdealvalue.Thisshiftwasmainlyduetoasharpdeclineinthevalueofgrowthdeals,whichfell50%fromthepriorfiveyearaverage.Thetotalshareofgrowthdealsdippedonly13%comparedwiththepreviousfveyearaverage.Severalmarketfactorsunderpinnedthistrend,includingthegeographicalmixofdeals.
39、TheregionproducedfewerdealsinGreaterChina,India,andSoutheastAsia,marketswheregrowthdealsaredominanthistorically.Theregionalsoproducedfewertechnologydeals,whichtypicallyaregrowthdeals.Anotherkeyfactorwasthedeclineinthenumberofgrowthdealsrelativetobuyouts.AclimateofeconomicuncertaintymeansGPscannolong
40、errelyonmultipleexpansiontoincreasethevalueofFigure 5: TheshareofbuyoutdealsincreasedasinvestorsoptedformorecontrolandlessriskS128B绛147OtherITUrnaroundZrestructuringPIPE3Start-up/eariy-stageGrowthIBuyoutsShareofAsia-Pacificinvestmentvalue,bydealtype100%8060402002013-17average2018-22average202332%441
41、10248%62674Shareofbuyoutdealvalue43%Averagebuyoutdealsize($M)$353MAveragegrowthdealsize($M)$87MNotes:Excludesrealestate;PIPEisprivateinvestmentinpublicequity;start-up/eariy-stageinvestmentsusefinancingforproductdevelopmentandinitialmarketing;thecompanymaybeintheprocessofbeingorganizedormayhavebeenin
42、businessforashorttime,buthasntsolditsproductcommercially;growthincludesexpansion,growth,mezzanine,andpre-1POcapitaldealsSource:AVCJAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024theirportfoliocompanies.Instead,theyarebettingonoperationalimprovement.Thatmeanstakingamoreactiveroleinportfoliomanagementtoensuresucc
43、essfulexitsandlimitdownsiderisk.Ourresearchshowsthatwheninvestorsselectdeals,26%areseekingtoexercisemorecontrolthantheydidfiveyearsago.And36%areactivelyadjustingtheirportfol100wnershipapproachortargetstructuretoincreaseownershipandcontrol.AclimateofeconomicuncertaintymeansGPscannolongerrelyonmultipl
44、eexpansiontoincreasethevalueoftheirportfoliocompanies.Instead,theyarebettingonoperationalimprovement.As1.Psstrivetomitigaterisk,theyareallocatingmorecapitaltolargerfundswithestablishedtrackrecords,andthosetendtobebuyoutfunds.1.argermegadealstendedtobebuyouts,increasingtheshareofbuyoutdealvalue.Growt
45、hdealsweresmalleronaveragethaninpreviousyears.Ahighershareofbuyoutdealshelpedboosttheaveragedealsize14%comparedwith2022.However,theaveragedealin2023was7%smallerthanthepriorfive-yearaverage.Whiletherewerefarfewermegadeals,theaveragewas30%largerthanthepreviousfive-yearaverage,and41%largerthan2022.Japa
46、n,buoyedbylowerinterestratesandalowercostofcapital,generated63%oftheregion,smegadealsbyvalue.ThesemegadealsincludedJapanIndustrialPartners,$16billion(2.1trillionJapaneseyen)purchaseofToshiba,JICCapitals$6.9billionpurchaseofJSR,andaJICCapital-ledconsortiums$4.7billionacquisitionofShinkoElectricIndust
47、ries.GreaterChinageneratedfourmegadealsin2023,asharpdropfromthe14megadealsitaveragedinthepreviousfiveyears.TwoofthelargestwereBainCapitaFsacquisitionofQinhuaiDatafor$3.2billion,andGeneralAtlantic,MubadalaInvestmentCompany,andHongShan,s$2billioninvestmentinfashioncompanyShein.SouthKoreaproducedthreem
48、egadeals,includingEQT,s$2.3billionpurchaseofamajoritystakeinSKShieldusJUCKPartnersandMBKPartners5$1.9billionacquisitionofOsstemImplant；andthe$1.2billionsaleofastakeinSKOnCotoaconsortiumincludingMBKPartners,HillhouseCapital,QatarInvestmentAuthority,andBlackRock.Forthefirsttimesince2016,Indiageneratednomegadealsinthetechnologysectorandonlythreeintotal,comparedwithapriorfive-yearaverageofseven.India,s2023megadealsincludedTemasek,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024$2billionpurchaseOfManipalHealthEnterprises；EQTandChrysCapitas$1.1bi
