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1、（2019年）帮助维护欧洲安全的军备控制条约Thearmscontroltreaty,whichhashelpedkeepEuropeanssafe,可能很快就会终止couldsoonend.如果俄♥罗♥斯♥在六个月内无法恢复IfRussiadoesnotreturntofullandverifiablecompliancewiththetreaty对中导条约全面可证的遵守withinthissix-monthperiod以可核查的方式销毁其违反中导条约的导弹byverifiablydestroyingitsINF-violatingmissiles,
2、发射器和相关设备theirlaunchersandassociatedequipment,则该条约将终止thetreatywillterminate.国务卿迈克蓬佩奥宣布美国将终止SecretaryofStateMikePompeoannouncingthattheUSisleaving与俄♥罗&hearts沸f♥签署的中程核力量条约theintermediate-rangenuclearforcestreatywithRussia.我们看到特朗普政♥府♥WesawintheTrumpAdministration,特朗普总统终止了一项条约
3、PresidentTrumpwithdrawfromonetreaty,即中程核力量条约theIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreaty.美俄之间只剩下一项军备控制条约了TheresonlyonearmscontroltreatyleftbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussia,即新削减战略武器条约theNewSTARTTreaty,但这一条约也将在几年后到期andeventhatisduetoexpireinafewyears.（乌克兰哈尔科夫2022年3月1日）由于乌克兰问题BecauseUS-Russianrelations美俄关系陷
4、入低谷areatsuchalowpointbecauseofUkraine,致使两国可能无法重启谈判这可能是一个悲剧theymightnotbeabletorestartthosenegotiations,whichcouldbetragic.因为如果该条约到期这将是50年来第一次Becauseifthattreatyexpires,thiswouldbethefirsttimein50years美国和俄♥罗♥斯♥可以部署的wheretheresnolimitsonthetotalnumberofnuclearweapons核武器总数不受限制thatt
5、heUnitedStatesandRussiacandeploy.今晚克里姆林宫暂停所有涉及核武器的通报Tonight,theKremlinnowsuspendingallnotificationsinvolvingnuclearweapons,即新削减战略武器条约要求的通报communicationsrequiredundertheNewSTARTTreaty.我觉得我们已经进入新一轮核军备竞赛的首局了Ifeelwe,realreadyinthefirstinningofanewnucleararmsrace.我们在合作与灾难间展开竞赛Weareinaracebetweencooperati
6、onandcatastrophe.美国和俄♥罗♥斯♥都是如此ItisnotjusttheUS,Russia.也包括世界上所有能制♥造♥核武器的国家It,salsoallthecountriesintheworldthatcanmakeweapons这些国家足以毁灭上帝创造的世界thatcaneliminateGodscreation.这就是我们在人类层面上的处境Thatswhereweareonthehumanscale.灾难来的比合作快得多Catastropheisrunningalotfasterthancooperat
7、ion.转折点：原♥子♥弹♥与冷战第四章高墙耸立（莫斯科）冷战的一大特点是OneOfthecharacteristicsoftheColdWar苏联人总是对美国的实力感到不安wasthattheSovietswerealwaysinsecureaboutAmericanpower.他们知道自己落后了Theyknewtheywerebehind.他们还知道因为美国有新闻自♥由♥Theyalsoknew,becausetheUShadafreepress,所以只要他们稍微表现出一点实力howafraidAmericansgot美
8、国人就会非常害怕whenevertheyshowedalittlebitofmight.赫鲁晓夫想把美国人的恐惧化作武器AndKhrushchevwantedtoweaponizeAmericanfears.他认为核武器Hefeltthatnuclearweapons是一种威胁weresuchathreat他可以利用核武器thathecouldusethempsychologically从心理上遏制美国的实力tocontainAmericanpower.于是他开始夸大其词Sohesetaboutexaggerating.苏联人开始假装他们拥有更多的导弹TheSovietsbegantopret
9、endthattheyhadmoremissiles.我们不想打仗但我们不会停下来Wedontwantwar,butwewon,tstop.没有什么能阻止我们捍卫我们的主♥权♥和领土完整Nothingstopsusfromdefendingoursovereigntyandourmotherland.中♥央♥情报局的问题是要搞清楚TheproblemfortheCIAistryingtofigureout克里姆林宫内部在发生什么whatsgoingoninsidetheKremlin.苏联的军事实力到底如何？Whatarethemilit
10、arycapabilitiesoftheSovietUnion?他们有多少枚导弹？Howmanymissilesdotheyhave?他们有多少枚炸♥弹♥?他们的军队规模有多大？Howmanybombsdotheyhave?Howbigistheirarmy?（1956年）于是中情局命令声名显赫的理查德比塞尔SotheCIA,throughthebrilliantRichardBissell,带头研制间谍飞机spearheadstheefforttodevelopaspyplane.第一架间谍飞机名叫U-2ThefirstspyplaneiscalledtheU-2
11、.U-2可以在两万多米的高空飞行TheU-2canflyatanaltitudeofmorethan70,000feet,还可以从如此高度拍摄照片anditcantakepicturesfromthataltitude照片的质量足以让你清楚某个机场的情况thataregoodenoughtoletyouknowwhatishappeningatacertainairfield.U-2出现后确实改变整场游戏WhentheU-2camealong,itreallydidchangethewholegame.冷战时期的猫捉老鼠游戏TheColdWarcat-and-mousegame.美国人第一次可
12、以绘制出Forthefirsttime,theAmericanscouldmap苏联境内的地图可以看到这些东西的真实细节whatwashappeningintheSovietUnion,couldseethisstuffinrealdetail.但这些间谍飞机并非每天都能执行任务Buttheseflightswerenoteveryday.他们也不可能拍摄到苏联境内AndtheycouldntphotographeverypartoftheSovietUnion所有可能有导弹发射场的地方thatmighthaveamissilefarm.在核武器时代你并不应该低估你的敌人Inatimeofnu
13、clearweapons,youdontwanttounderestimateyourenemy因为犯错的代价可能是灾难性的becausethecostsofgettingitwrongarepotentiallycatastrophic.然后苏联把第一颗人造卫星送入太空了AndthentheSovietssurprisedtheUnitedStates这让美国大吃一惊byputtingthefirstartificialsatelliteintospace.1957年10月4日October4,1957.第一颗地球卫星”斯普特尼克”发射Sputnik,thefirstEarthsatelli
14、te,waslaunched.苏联凭借这颗名叫”斯普特尼克”的TheSovietUniongetstospacefirst会发出哗哗声的小球率先入太空了withthistinybeepingballcalledSputnik.在地球历史上InthehistoryoftheEarth,没有其他任何事件noothereventhadcapturedtheimagination能像人类首次涉足太空一样激起如此多人的想象ofsomanypeopleasthisfirststepintospace.人造卫星经过你家时你可以在后院Youcouldwatchitfromyourbackyardwithbin
15、oculars用双筒望远镜观察它asitpassesoveryourhouse.你可以用家里的收音机收听它Youcouldpickituponyourhouseholdradio.俄♥罗♥斯♥率先进人太空对美国来说AnditbecomesthissortofbeepingharbingerofdoomfortheUnitedStates是厄运的预兆thatRussiagottospacefirst,更广泛地说andthensortofmorebroadly,也引发对美国在科学技术方面thisfearthattheUSwasfallingbehind落后
16、的担忧inscienceandtechnology.如果他们能把太空舱送入太空Well,iftheycanputthatcapsuleintospace,他们就能把装有核弹头的导弹送入太空theycanputamissilewithanuclearwarheadintospace,游戏就结束了andthegamesover.继U-2之后出现一项更有用的间谍技术TheU-2isfollowedbyanevenmoreusefulpieceofspytechnology,被称作“花冠“卫星whichiscalledtheCORONAsatellite.那是一颗被送入轨道的小卫星Thatsasmal
17、lsatelliteplacedinorbit,可以进行连续拍摄首先是静态照片whichcantakecontinuous,first,stillpictures,其次是视频可以记录苏联正在发生的事情andthenvideoofwhatsgoingonintheSovietUnion.第一颗卫星实际上使用的是胶片Thefirstsatellitesactuallyusedfilm,他们川电了设备从卫星上弹出胶片罐andtheywouldejectthesepodsoffilmfromthesatellitewithelectronics,这样能清楚胶片的位置soyoudknowwhereitw
18、as.空军飞机的前部有大型尖头AirForceplaneswithbigprongsatthefrontoftheplane可以抓住正在降落的胶片罐wouldsnatchthiscanistercomingdowntoearth.然后这些胶片罐会被送到柯达公♥司♥进行冲洗ThecanisterswouldthenbesenttoKodaktobedeveloped.第一颗摄影卫星为我们提供了ThefirstphotographicsatellitesgaveusalotOfinformation大量关于苏联轰炸机aboutwhatwasgoingonintheSov
19、ietUnion以及导弹的信息intermsofbothbombersandmissiles.正如中♥央&hearts/情报局发现的那样AstheCIAdiscovered,苏联并没有数千枚theSovietUniondidnothavethousandsofmissiles能够打击美国的导弹capableofstrikingtheUnitedStates.也没有数百枚能够打击美国的核弹ItdidnothavehundredsofnukescapableofstrikingtheUnitedStates.他们只有四枚Ithadfour.不是四千枚Not4,000.原来导弹数量确实
20、有差距Turnedouttherewasamissilegap,不过是我们领先比例大概是100O比1butitwasaroundathousandtooneinourfavor.在20世纪50年代我们一直担心的Thisthingthatwehadfearedthroughallofthe1950s对美国生存的威胁asthisexistentialthreattotheUnitedStates实际上是一只纸老虎wasreallyapapertiger.俄♥国♥&hearts库♥队被大大高估了TheRussianarmyhadbeenenormouslyo
21、verestimated.俄♥国♥人并没有制♥造♥导弹的紧急计划TheRussianswerenotonacrashprogramtobuildmissiles,我周围的人都曾不加思考地认为他们有那样的计划whichthepeoplearoundmealltookforgrantedthattheywere,他们也并不领先也没有想要占据领先andwerenotsuperior,werenottryingtobesuperior,这意味着他们没有试图掌握对美国进行先发制人的whichmeantthattheywerenottryingfor
22、afirst-strikecapability打击能力againsttheUS,反过来又意味着他们没有试图通过军事力量主宰世界whichinturnreallymeanttheywerenttryingtodominatetheworldmilitarily.这项发现本应促使我们重新思考Thatdiscoveryshouldhaveledtoarethinking我们过去的世界视角下的思考模式ofourwholeparadigmthereofourwholeworldperspective,关于我们面对的是谁他们的目的是什么astowhowewereconfronting,andwhatthe
23、iraimswere,以及我们要如何应对他们andhowwedealtwiththem.但结果并非如此Butitdidntatall.（共&hearts产♥党的征服与殖民）总之苏联的外交政策是征服TheforeignpolicyoftheSovietUnionis,inaword,conquest.他们设想让整个世界苏维埃化实现统一的共&hearts产♥主义TheyenvisiontheentireworldSovietizedandunitedcommunist-style.为什么这种彻头彻尾的虚假信念一直这样持久呢？Whyhassuchatotallyfraud
24、ulentbeliefbeensopersistentallthistime?因为能创造岗位Becausethere,sjobs.而且非常有利可图Itsveryprofitable.各种私营企业国防承包商Allmannerofprivate-sectorcompanies,defensecontractors,通信承包商communicationscontractors,都变得依赖政♥府♥和国防开支becomesreliantonthegovernmentandthedefensespending.这正在成为一个有核武器脑袋的九头蛇Thisisbecomingsor
25、tofanuclear-headedhydra这是美国以前从未有过的unlikeanythingthattheUShaseverexperiencedbefore.致力国防的取向也极大地改变了美国的大学ThedefenseorientationalsodramaticallychangedAmericanuniversities,特别是在科学和技术方面particularlyinscienceandtechnology.据估计在20世纪50年代Bysomeestimates,75%offundingforthenaturalsciences75%的自然科学经费来自国防机构WaScomingfr
26、omdefenseinstitutesinthe1950s.当时的社会日益以国防和安全Thiswasasocietythathadbecomeincreasinglyorientedarounddefense,以及核武器为中心andsecurity,andnuclearweapons.在艾森豪威尔的领导下武器的数量UnderEisenhower,thenumberofweapons以及武器类型的多样性开始呈指数增长andthediversityoftypesofweaponsstartstoexponentiallyincrease.核基础设施领域的TheAmericanscientistsw
27、ithinthenuclearinfrastructure美国科学家非常有创造力getextremelycreative.所以他们最终制♥造♥出各种各样的炸♥弹♥Sotheyendupwiththiswidevarietyofbombs来应对各种不同的情况forallsortsofdifferenttypesofcircumstances.美国制♥造♥的最小的炸♥弹♥ThesmallestbombsthattheUSevermade可以装进一个足够大的行李袋或背包couldfitin
28、toareasonablylargeduffelbagorbackpack由一个人携带andbecarriedbyasingleperson.当时制♥造♥的最大的炸♥弹♥Thelargestbombsthatgetmadeinthisperiod基本上有校车那么大werethesizeofasortofschoolbus,essentially.那是巨型炸♥弹♥It,sahugebomb.轰炸机里都装不下只能挂机身下面Itdoesntreallyfitinsidethebomber.Ithastosortofh
29、angunderneathit.还有介于两者之间的东西也许是用来装在导弹上的炸♥弹♥Andthenyouhaveeverythinginbetween.Mightbeabombmeanttobeonamissile.也许是一枚导弹搭载十枚炸♥弹♥Itmightbeabombthatsmeanttohavetenofthemononemissile.也许是鱼雷也许是地雷Itmightbeatorpedo.Itmightbealandmine,也许是使用飞机投掷的普通炸♥弹♥aregularbombyoudropo
30、utofaplane,也许是运载核弹以击落轰炸机的火箭arocketmeanttocarryanuclearbombtoshootdownabomber.当时的武器种类繁多Justatremendousvarietyofweaponsinthistime.他们有无限的预算和无限的想法Theysortofhaveanunlimitedbudgetforthis,andunlimitedideas.艾森豪威尔上台时WhenEisenhowercameintooffice,大约有1000枚核弹头therewasaboutathousandatomicwarheads.艾森豪威尔卸任时有大约23000
31、枚核弹头WhenEisenhowerleftoffice,therewasabout23,000nuclearwarheads.其中大部分都是热核炸♥弹♥Andmostofthembynowwerethermonuclear,比长崎原♥子♥弹♥的威力强一千倍whichwasathousandtimesmorepowerfulthantheNagasakibomb.这种毁灭性力量的巨大扩张ThisimmenseexpansionOfdestructivepower几乎没有引起公众的注意tookplacewithverylitt
32、leattentionofthepublic.到1961年卸任时Bythetimethatheleftofficein1961,艾森豪威尔也开始担心这些支出水平Eisenhowerwasconcernedathowthesespendinglevels似平会一直在不断上升justseemedtokeepgoingupandupandup,即便是他自己最初批准了许多政策evenafterhehimselfhadendorsedmanyofthepolicies才造成这种情况的thatcreatedthatsituationinthefirstplace.在艾森豪威尔看来这开始对美国民&heart
33、s;主♥构成威胁了ToEisenhower,thiswasbeginningtoposeathreattoAmericandemocracy.我们被迫建立了一个规模庞大的Wehavebeencompelledtocreateapermanentarmamentsindustry（1961年1月17日）永久性军♥火♥工业ofvastproportions.在政♥府♥委员会中Inthecouncilsofgovernment,我们必须防止军工复合体Wemustguardagainsttheacquisitionofunwarra
34、ntedinfluence,获得不必要的影响力无论是有意的还是无意的whethersoughtorunsought,bythemilitary-industrialcomplex.错位权力灾难性崛起的可能性Thepotentialforthedisastrousrise是存在的并将持续存在ofmisplacedpowerexistsandwillpersist.艾森豪威尔在他的总统任期结束时变得非常害怕Eisenhowerbecomesdeeplyafraidbytheendofhispresidency.冷战正在失去控制TheColdWarisspinningoutofcontrol.许许多
35、多的国会议员都依赖于他们选区的职责Somanycongressmenarereliantonthejobsintheirdistricts导致继续向着世界末日的时刻而努力thatitssortofineveryonesinterest符合所有人的利益了tokeepbuildingtowardsthisworld-endingmoment因为这是一笔好生意becauseitsgoodbusiness.民♥主♥党人共和党人双方都参与这场游戏了Bothsidesplayedit.Democrat,Republican,theyallplayedthisgame.虽然我们今
36、天在军事上是世界上最强大的国家了Althoughwearetodaythestrongestnationintheworldmilitarily,但我们必须增强实力wemustincreaseourstrength.我们当代的根本问题是近年来ThefundamentalproblemofourtimeisthesteadyerosionofAmericanpower相对于共♥产♥主义国家美国的实力正在不断受到侵蚀relativetothatofthecommunistsinrecentyears.约翰肯尼迪在1960年竞选总统时JohnKennedy,whenhes
37、runningforpresidentin1960,谈到了导弹缺口talksaboutthemissilegap,有点暗示艾森豪威尔政♥府♥在某种程度上youknow,and-andkindOfsuggestingthatsomehowtheEisenhoweradministration是软弱的hadbeensoft.相较苏联的弱点被暴露了HadbeencaughtwiththeirpantsdownagainsttheSoviets.他们都玩这套Theyallplayedit.（德怀特D艾森豪威尔1953年）（约翰F肯尼迪1961年）（约翰F肯尼迪美国总统196
38、1-1963）我约翰菲茨杰拉德肯尼迪郑重宣誓I,JohnFitzgeraldKennedy,dosolemnlyswear.你将忠实履行Thatyouwillfaithfullyexecutetheoffice美国总统的职责ofPresidentoftheUnitedStates.我将忠实履行美国总统的职责.thatIwillfaithfullyexecutetheofficeofPresidentoftheUnitedStates.肯尼迪上台了他是一位年轻的总统Kennedycomesin.Kennedysayoungpresident.只有当我们的武器是亳无疑问足够的Onlywhenour
39、armsaresufficientbeyonddoubt我们才能毫无疑问地确定永远不会使用武力canwebecertainbeyonddoubtthattheywillneverbeemployed.赫;鲁晓夫想：”那小家伙是谁啊？Khrushchevthinks,Whoisthatlittleboy?他和他儿子列昂尼德一样大He,stheageofhisownsonLeonid.当然赫鲁晓夫自己的反对者也越来越多And,ofcourse,Khrushchevhadhisownoppositionalreadygrowing,强硬派说thehardlinerswhoweresaying,”美国
40、人对你的态度太糟糕了”Well,theAmericansaretreatingyousohorribly.所以有很多人私下跟他说Sohehadalotofpeopleinhisear他是十足的傻瓜sayingthathewasjustbeingatotalfool,是西方的出气筒等等andapunchingbagfortheWest,andsoon.然后就是赫鲁晓夫著名的联♥合♥国♥之行ThenthefamousvisitofKhrushchevtotheUnitedNations他挥着拳头尖叫着whenhewasbanginghisfistsands
41、creamingthat,youknow,美国是一个帝♥国♥上♥义♥国家和种族主义国家Americaisanimperialistcountryandracistcountry.屋顶上的麻雀都在叽叽喳喳地说Allthesparrowsontherooftopsarechirpingaboutthis支持殖民政♥权♥的帝♥国♥主♥义♥大国thatthemostimperialistpowerwhichsupportscolonialregimes是美&hea
42、rts;利♥坚♥合众国istheUnitedStatesofAmerica.因此对抗♥日♥益加剧Sotheconfrontationwasincreasing,肯尼迪政♥府♥中有自己的鹰派人物andKennedyhadhisownhawksintheadministration推动他站出来反对这位可怕的苏联独♥裁&hearts*pushinghimtostepupandbeagainstthishorribleSovietdespot.所以很多事情都失控了Andsoalotofitjustwasg
43、ettingoutofcontrol.然后他们于1961年在维也纳会面了AndthentheymetinViennain1961.（维也纳峰会1961年6月3日）我去维也纳见了苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫先生IwenttoViennatomeettheleaderoftheSovietUnion,Mr.Khrushchev.整整两天我们进行了冷静而深入的交谈Fortwodays,wemetinsober,intensiveconversation.但我们最严肃的谈话是关于德国和柏林的ButourmostsombertalkswereonthesubjectofGermanyandBerlin.（北约）（
44、华沙条约组织）1961年东西方之间的对抗In1961,theconfrontationbetweenEastandWest在柏林变得越来越激烈becomesmoreandmoreintenseinBerlin.（您正在进入法国区）在某种程度上东德是苏联帝国皇冠上的宝石EastGermanyisinsomewaysthejewelinthecrownoftheSovietEmpire.它位于欧洲的中心ItsintheheartofEurope,是整个苏联集团最发达的地区之一anditsoneofthemostdevelopedpartsoftheentireSovietBloc.但东德正在大出血
45、因为东德的人♥民♥正在离开ButEastGermanyisbleedingtodeathbecauseitspeoplearejustleaving.医生工程师教师技师Doctors,engineers,teachers,technicians.共♥产♥党摇摇欲坠的经济中急需拥有技能的人才Peoplewithskillsbadlyneededinthecommunistsfalteringeconomy.自从战后占领区建立以来MorethanfourmillionpeoplehavefledfromSovietdomination巳有40
46、0多万人逃离苏联的统治sincethepost-waroccupationzoneswereestablished.我小时候在柏林居住的那块地方ThepartOfBerlinwhereIgrewup,（约阿希姆诺伊曼东德居民）很不幸最后归属东柏林了was.wouldbecome,uh,EastBerlin,unfortunately.作为一个小孩子东柏林和西柏林的边界是开放的Asalittlechild,theborderbetweenEastandWestBerlinwasopen.所以我们可以随心所欲地去西柏林SowecouldgotoWestBerlinsooftenasweliked.在西柏林我们能看到我们想看的所有电影InWestBerlin,wewereabletoseeallmovieswhichwewanttosee.我们可以读所有的书我们可以听各种音乐Wecouldreadallbooks.Wecouldlistentoeverykindofmusic.在东柏林在德意志民♥上♥共和国很多这样的事情是不被允许的AndinEastBerlin,theGDR,alotofsuchthingswasnotallowed.然后我们的生活改变rAndthenourlifechanged.1961年8月13日Onthe13
