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1、（基辅）（乌克兰俄♥罗♥斯♥）（扎波罗热核电站）视频显示核电站陷于火焰和烟雾之中VideoshowsflamesandsmokeengulfingtheZaporizhzhiapowerplant.（扎波罗热核电站2022年3月3日）扎波罗热核电站是欧洲最大的核电站ZaporizhzhiaisthebiggestnuclearplantinEurope.六个机组中有两个遭到重型武器的炮击Twoofthesixunitswereshelledbyheavyweapons.（杰曼加卢申科）他说：”立刻停止袭击He,ssaying,Stopshootingi
2、mmediately.你们威胁到整个世界的安全了”Youthreatenthesecurityofthewholeworld.我们听说俄♥罗&hearts撕♥军队WerehearingthatRussianforces已经接管了那座巨大的核电站haveactuallytakenoverthatmassivenuclearplant.普♥京♥正在使用民用基础设施并将其军事化和武器化Putinisusingcivilinfrastructureandmilitarizingit,Weaponizingit.他很清楚如果武器He,sawaret
3、hatitsimpossibletoshootback是在核电站所在的地方使用的那就不可能发动反击iftheweaponsarebeingusedfromtheterritoryofanuclearpowerplant.他甚至不需要真正的炸♥弹♥Hedoesnotevenneedanactualbomb.六个机组Sixblocks.意味着六个切尔诺贝利ItmeanssixChernobyls.（弗拉基米尔泽连斯基）意味着欧洲最大的危险ItmeansthebiggestdangerinEurope.（切尔诺贝利核电站乌克兰普里皮亚特）他们当时已经占领了切尔诺贝利The
4、yalreadyoccupiedatthattimeChernobyl.（切尔诺贝利禁区2022年2月24日）俄♥罗&hearts撕&hearts库队已经控制了UkrainianofficialssayRussianforceshavenowtakencontrol臭名昭著的切尔诺贝利核电站ofthatinfamousChernobylnuclearplant.世界上最严重的核灾难发生地Thesceneoftheworldsworstnucleardisasterin1986.（切尔诺贝利核灾难1986年4月26日）他们可以说：我们可以让灾难重演”They-Theycouldsa
5、y,Wecoulddothiscatastropheagain.太疯狂了It,sinsane.俄♥罗♥斯♥近乎冒着引发另一场切尔诺贝利式灾难的风险RussiaisdangerouslyclosetoriskinganotherChernobyl-Iikecatastrophe,在某种程度上俄♥罗♥斯♥也在冒着在乌克兰战场上andinsomeways,riskingthecreationofthisdirtybombofnucleardestruction制♥造&卜earts;核毁灭脏弹的危险rig
6、htthereontheUkrainianbattlefield.转折点：原♥子♥弹♥与冷战第五章战争竞赛1980年夏天卡特总统手下的国♥家♥安♥全♥顾问Inthesummerof1980,theNationalSecurityAdvisor,Brzezinskt布热津斯基whoworkedforPresidentCarter,半夜在家里接到一通电♥话♥gotthiscallathomeinthemiddleofthenight.是布热津斯基的军事助理比尔奥多姆上校打来
7、的ItwasBrzezinskismilitaryassistant,ColonelBillOdom,他说：“我们刚刚收到警报andhesaid,We,vejustgottenanalert大约有200枚苏联导弹正朝美国飞来”thattherearelike200SovietmissilesheadedtowardtheUnitedStates.（红色电♥话♥）布热津斯基说：“进一步确认一下”Brzezinskisays,Well,getbetterconfirmation.奥多姆给他lnl电♥话♥说：“我搞错Odomcallshimba
8、ckandhesays,Iwasmistaken.1不是200枚是大概2000枚”,It,snot200.Ifslike2,000.晚年时布热津斯基聊起此事时Inlateryears,Brzezinski,talkingaboutit,说他当时选择不叫醒自己的妻子saidhechosenottowakeuphiswife.华盛顿将在几分钟内消失Washingtonwouldbegoneinamatterofminutes.他觉得不如让她在睡梦中死去Hethoughtshewasbetteroffdyinginhersleep.他准备叫醒美国总统Andhegetsreadytowakeupthe
9、PresidentoftheUnitedStates对他说：“你要做一个选择“andsay,Youhaveachoicetomake.就在他要这么做之前Andjustbeforehedoesthat,他再次接到军事顾问的电♥话♥hegetsanothercallfromhismilitaryadvisorsaying,他说：“是错误警报”Ah.Itsafalsealarm.一块价值40美分的电脑芯片坏了Therewasa40-centcomputerchipthatwentbad告诉系统我们受到了苏联的攻击thattoldthesystemthatwewereund
10、erattackbytheSovietUnion.如果卡特总统决定发射导弹IfPresidentCarterhaddecidedtolaunch,美国就将对俄♥罗♥斯&hearts波动全面攻击theUnitedStateswouldhavelaunchedafull-scaleattackagainstRussia这可能会引发俄♥罗♥斯♥对我们的报复thatprobablywouldhavetriggeredretaliationbyRussiaagainstus.那可能就是世界末日了Thatcouldhavebeenthe
11、endoftheworld.过去77年的核武器发展史Thehistoryofnuclearweaponsoverthelast77years可以告诉我们我们曾经无数次接近灾难willtellusthatwevegottenveryclosetocatastrophenumeroustimes.我们能幸免于难Andwhenwevesurvived,是因为我们非常幸运itsbecausewe,vegottenincrediblylucky.差点擦枪走火只是拥有核武器的问题之一Closecallsarejustafeatureofhavingnuclearweapons.从这些年来看问题还有几十种T
12、herehavebeenliterallydozensovertheyears.这还只是五角大楼承认的几十种DozensjustthatthePentagonacknowledges.存在形式包括爆♥炸♥Theyvetakentheshapeofexplosions.丢失核原料lostnuclearmaterial,武器错放以及差点擦枪走火misplacedweapons,andclosecalls.到20世纪70年代初人们开始努力控制核冲突Bytheearly1970s,theresanefforttoregulatethenuclearconflict以减少核风
13、险toreducenucleardanger.但当吉米卡特担任总统时ButwhenJimmyCarterwaspresident,很多人都普遍感觉苏联正在前进alotofpeoplehadageneralizedsensethattheSovietUnionwasontheadvance.苏联入侵了阿富汗TheSovietshadinvadedAfghanistan.他们违反了二战后的一项共识TheyviolatedanunderstandingsincetheendofWorldWarII.他们军事入侵了世界的一部分Theyhadmovedintoapartoftheworld,milita
14、rily,而这一部分在他们从纳粹占领中解放东欧时thathadnotbeenpartofthespherecreated并不属于他们创造的范围whentheyliberatedEasternEuropefromNazioccupation.苏联人侵阿富汗TheSovietinvasionofAfghanistan似平表明苏联想要统治世界seemedtocrystallizethattheSovietswantedworlddomination.加上苏联拥有比美国更多的核导弹的消息AndwithnewsthattheSovietshadmorenuclearmissilesthantheUnit
15、edStates,给人的感觉是：我们落后了thesensewas,Wearefallingbehind.他们是一个威胁”Theyareathreat.（罗纳德里根共和党总统候选人1980年）我们为苏联打开了一扇危险的脆弱之窗WehaveopenedadangerouswindowofvulnerabilitytotheSovietUnion.罗纳德里根曾是一名演员RonaldReaganwasaformeractor.他曾连任两届加州州长Heisatwo-termgovernorofCalifornia,他的支持者是保守派andhebuildshisconstituencyofconserva
16、tives这些人对与苏联的缓和政策whoareunhappywiththisideaofdetentewiththeSovietUnion,或者缓和紧张关系的想法十分不满orrelaxationoftensions.战争5和平的问题已成为核心问题双方的相互迁就Thequestionofwarandpeacehasemergedasacentralissueinthiscampaign,andthegiveandtake.（总统辩论1980年10月28日）里根是缓和政策最严厉的批评者之一Reaganwasamongtheharshestcriticsofdetente.我们不能逃避作为自&hea
17、rts;由♥世界领袖的责任Wecannotshirkourresponsibilityastheleaderofthefreeworld因为只有我们有能力做到这一点becauseweretheonlyonethatcandoit,因此维护和平的重担落在了我们身上andthereforetheburdenofmaintainingthepeacefallsonus.要维持和平需要力量支持Andtomaintainthatpeace,requiresstrength.这种恐惧Itsthesamekindoffear曾在1959年和1960年主宰了美国政♥治&hearts
18、;thathaddominatedAmericanpoliticsin1959and1960.历史又重演了Itwashappeningalloveragain.罗纳德里根乘着这股恐惧的浪潮RonaldReaganrodethewaveofthatfear入主了白宫intotheWhiteHouse.（吉米卡特1977年）（罗纳德里根1981年）20世纪80年代初有些人称之为第二次冷战Theearly1980s,somepeoplecallitthesecondColdWar因为它紧随着缓和政策时期而来becauseitcameontheheelsofaperiodofdetente.自1970
19、年以来苏联在军事上的投入Since1970,theSovietUnionhasinvested$300billionmore比我们多了3000亿美元initsmilitaryforcesthanWehave.让这种不平衡继续下去是对我们国♥家♥安♥全♥的威胁Toallowthisimbalancetocontinueisathreattoournationalsecurity.冷战以及对第三次世界大战和核战争的恐惧TheColdWarandthefearofWorldWarIIIandnuclearwar弥漫在1980年代reallype
20、rmeatedthe80s.也渗透到流行文化之中Anditsaturatedintopopularculture.警告!核攻击！Warning!Warning!Nuclearattack!电影书籍流行音乐帮助我们克服焦虑Moviesandbooksandpopularmusichelpusprocessthroughouranxieties.40年来双方都遵守着For40years,bothsidesobservedtheunwrittenrules这条世上最致命游戏的不成文规则ofthedeadliestgametheworldhaseverknown.有很多关于第三次世界大战和核战争的电影
21、TherewerealotofmoviesaboutWorldWarIII,aboutnuclearwar.这一次他们充其量Thistime,theyareplayingwith,atbest,就是毁灭我们所知的生命thedestructionoflifeasweknowit.你是无法打赢核战争的Youcannotwinanuclearwar!每个人都生活在这样的背景中大环境一直就是如此Itwasthewallpaperofeverybodyslife.Soitwasalwaysinthebackground.1981年1月罗纳德里根当选总统时WhenRonaldReaganbecamepre
22、sidentinJanuary1981,列昂尼德勃列口涅夫仍然是总♥书♥记♥1.eonidBrezhnevwasstillthegeneralsecretary.核武库规模庞大Thenucleararsenalswereenormous.但两国政♥府♥高层也缺乏沟通Buttherewasalsoalackofcommunicationattheseniorlevelsofbothgovernments.里根认为相互保证毁灭对方“与“缓和政策”的结合Reaganfeltthatthecombinationofmutualass
23、ureddestructionanddetente把美国人置于框框之中了hadputtheAmericansinabox,我们不敢做任何事情thatwewereafraidtodoanything,因为我们执着J：战略稳定becausewewereobsessedwithstrategicstability.里根说：“我要批准新的核武器系统Reagansays,Imgoingtoapprovenewnuclearweaponssystems以此来给苏联施压asawayofputtingthescrewstotheSoviets,迫使他们进行谈判”toforcethemtonegotiate.我
24、们的战略和常规部队的现代化Themodernizationofourstrategicandconventionalforces将确保发挥威慑力实现和平willassurethatdeterrenceworksandpeaceprevails.结果苏联领导层非常偏执Asaresult,theSovietleadershipwasquiteparanoid.他们认为美国及其盟国TheybelievedthattheUnitedStatesanditsallies正在策划一场先发制人的核打击wereplottinganuclearfirststrike目的是干掉克里姆林宫的领导层todecapit
25、atetheleadershipintheKremlin进而实现对世界的统治andtothenachieveworlddomination.1981年5月时任克格勃主席的尤里安德罗波夫InMay1981,YuriAndropov,whowaschairmanoftheKGB,提议他们展开一项新的重大情报行动proposedtheyembarkonamajornewintelligenceoperation.安德罗波夫下令实施这项行动Andropovordersthisoperationtotryandenhancetheirability以试图提高他们的辨别能力toidentifywhethe
26、rtheUnitedStatesis,infact,辨别美国是否真准备对他们发动核战争gettingreadytolauncha.anuclearwaragainstthem.“瑞安行动”是苏联在二战后OperationRYANwasthelargestintelligenceoperation开展的规模最大的情报行动theSovietUnionconductedafterWorldWarH.“瑞安”一词由俄语缩写构成RYANisanEnglishversionofaRussianacronym代表”核导弹攻击”thatstandsforNuclearRocketAttack.旨在寻找美国率先
27、对苏联AnditsintentionwastofindindicationsofaUSfirstnuclear发动核打击的迹象strikeagainsttheSovietUnion.他们要求大使♥馆♥人员监视美国的医院TheirembassyguysarebeingtoldtomonitorAmericanhospitals.我们在囤积血液和血浆吗？Arewestockpilingblood?Plasma?如果准备发动核战争这些都是要想到的Allthethingsyoudexpectifyouweregettingreadytolaunchanuclearwar.官
28、僚主义就是官僚主义Bureaucraciesarebureaucracies.如果克格勃的领导告诉这些人AndsoiftheheadoftheKGBtellstheseguys,“我要你们去找这些迹象”Iwantyoulookingforthesesigns/无论意味着什么他们都会找到theyregonnafindthemregardlessofwhattheymean.1982年11月安德罗波夫取代勃列日涅夫成为新的总♥书♥记♥InNovemberof82,AndropovreplacesBrezhnevasthenewgeneralsecretar
29、y.然后1983年时美国计划年底在西德Thenin1983,thedeploymentsofUSPershing11missilestoWestGermany部署潘兴2导弹arescheduledfortheendoftheyear.军方称潘兴2导弹能在十分钟内飞行1609公里TheArmysaysthatthePershingIIcanflyuptoathousandmilesinunder10minutes,并以外科手术般的精度向目标投掷核弹头anddropanuclearwarheadonatargetwithsurgicalprecision.在潘兴导弹击中克里姆林宫前Pershing
30、missilesgivetheSovietslikesevenminuteswarning只会给苏联七分钟的预警时间beforethemissilehitstheKremlin.所以他们非常害怕部署潘兴导弹SotheyrescaredtodeathaboutthedeploymentofthesePershingmissiles,这是对苏联在其西部whichareinresponsetotheSoviets*deployment部署SS-20中程导弹的回应ofSS-20intermediate-rangemissilesinthewesternSovietUnion.尽管苏联领导人今年早些时候
31、AlthoughtheSovietleadersearlierthisyear宣布他们将不再部署这种危险的导弹declaredtheydfrozendeploymentofthisdangerousmissile,但事实上他们仍在继续部署theyhave,infact,continueddeployment.SS-20被认为是一种先发制人的武器TheSS-20wasdeemedtobeafirst-strikeweaponitself.可以在几分钟内打击北约欧洲的任何目标ItcouldreachanytargetinNATOEuropeinminutes.SS-20能够飞行几千公里TheSS-
32、20wascapableofflyingacoupleofthousandkilometers,肯定覆盖柏林或巴黎地区了certainlytoBerlinortoParis.毋庸置疑对我们德国人来说Andthat,ofcourse,wasforusin-in-inGermany,这是一个关乎生死存亡的问题almostanexistential,uh,question.局势前所未有的紧张Tensionswereatanall-timehigh.1983年可能是冷战开始后自1962年以来最危险的一年1983wasprobablythemostdangerousyearoftheColdWarsin
33、ce1962.女士们先生们1.adiesandgentlemen,有请美国总统罗纳德里根thePresidentoftheUnitedStates,RonaldReagan.（1983年3月8日佛罗里达奥兰多国家福音派协会）1983年初局势变得越发紧张Inearly1983,thingsareheatingupalot.随后罗纳德里根发表了两次全国电视演讲AndthenRonaldReagangavetwonationallytelevisedspeeches似乎证实r苏联人最担心的事thatseemedtoconfirmtheSovietsworstfears以及“瑞安行动”的前提假设and
34、thepremiseofOperationRYAN.第一次演讲被称为“邪恶帝国”演讲ThefirstspeechbecameknownastheEvilEmpirespeech.我督促你们警惕傲慢的诱惑Iurgeyoutobewarethetemptationofpride,这种诱惑体现在漫不经心地置身事外thetemptationOfblithelydeclaringyourselvesaboveitall或者将美苏各打五十大板andlabelbothsidesequallyatfault,而无视那座邪恶帝国的toignorethefactsofhistory历史事实和侵略冲动andthea
35、ggressiveimpulsesofanevilempire,或者简单地将军备竞赛斥为一个巨大的误会tosimplycallthearmsraceagiantmisunderstanding,并因此拒绝介入andtherebyremoveyourselffromthestruggle这场对田错善与恶的对决betweenrightandwrongandgoodandevil.我认为“邪恶帝国”演讲TheEvilEmpirespeechreally,uhlIthink,对苏联领导层产生了重大影响hadasignificantimpactontheSovietleadership.这次演讲正中他们
36、的要害Thespeechkindofgetsthemwhereithurts.因为演讲攻击了他们作为一个正常国家的合法性Itattackstheirlegitimacyasanormalcountry作为一个等同于美国的国家的合法性andastheequivalentoftheUnitedStates.那是他们拼命寻求的合法性1.egitimacythattheydesperatelysought.然后他发表演讲宣布我们将建立Andthenhedeliversaspeechannouncingthatweregonnabuild战略防御计划thisStrategicDefenseInitiat
37、ive.如果成功了Ifitworks,就会使苏联的导弹部队变得如同空设itrenderstheSovietMissileForceuseless.在过去的15年电.Duringthepastdecadeandahalf（1983年3月23日）苏联建立了庞大的theSovietshavebuiltupamassivearsenal新型战略核武器库ofnewstrategicnuclearweapons.这些武器可以直接打击美国WeaponsthatcanstrikedirectlyattheUnitedStates.里根惊讶地发现Reaganwasalarmedtolearn美国实际上并没有办法
38、保护自己thattheUnitedStatesdidnotactuallyhaveawayofprotectingitself免受潜在的核打击fromapotentialnuclearattack.里根说：”与其依赖核威慑Reagansays,Wouldntitbesomuchbetter不如摧毁行进中的核导弹thatinsteadofrelyingonnucleardeterrence,这样不是更好吗？”wecoulddestroynuclearmissilesinflight?1是时候在战略规划上采取大胆的新举措了Itistimeforabold,newstrokeinstrategicp
39、lanning.（“高边疆战略”）为了满足这一需求HighFrontieraddressesthisneed”高边疆战略”提出了三层非核防御方案byproposingatriple-layered,non-nucleardefense.科学家爱德华泰勒提出ScientistEdTellersuggested太空激光或许可以解决thatthesolutiontoReagansnuclearfears里根的核恐惧mightbethroughspacelasers.我们可以在卫星上安装激光然后将卫星送入轨道Youcouldputlasersontopofsatellitesandplacethemi
40、norbit,这样就可以在核武器返回大气层前andthiswouldbeawaytoshootdownweapons将其击落从而防止核灾难beforetheyreturnedtotheatmosphere,therebypreventinganuclearholocaust.如果自♥由♥的人♥民♥能够安心地生活知道自己的安全Whatiffreepeoplecouldlivesecureintheknowledge不再是依靠美国大规模的报复行动来回击苏联核进攻的威胁thattheirsecuritydidnotrestuponthethre
41、atofinstantUSretaliation那会怎么样呢？todeteraSovietattack?知道我们能够在战略弹道导弹到达我国或我们盟国领土前Thatwecouldinterceptanddestroystrategicballisticmissiles就将它们拦截并摧毁那会怎么样呢？beforetheyreachedourownsoilorthatofourallies?这项计划的正式名称是“战略防御计划”TheofficialnameforthisprogramwastheStrategicDefenseInitiative.又被许多评论家称为Butitcametobeknow
42、nasStarWarsamongitscritics,”星球大战计划”whoweremany,尤其是在科技界particularlyinthescientificandtechnicalcommunity.因为这看起来就像科幻小说becauseitseemedlikesciencefiction.以当时的技术根本不可能实现Thetechnologywasnowherenearpossible,在我看来40年后也依然不可能and,inmyview,stillisnot40yearslater.但苏联人觉得这极具威胁性ButtheSovietsfindthisextremelythreatenin
43、g,并不是因为这即将成为现实notbecauseitwasgoingtohappenanytimesoon,而是因为他们担心美国人的新态度butbecausetheywereworriedaboutanewattitude担心他们说：“所有旧条约都取消了“amongtheAmericansthatsaid,Alltheolddealsareoff.各位美国同胞MyfellowAmericans,今晚我们要迈出重要的一步tonightwerelaunchinganeffortwhichholdsthepromise将改变人类历史的进程ofchangingthecourseofhumanhisto
44、ry.随后发生的一系列事件极大加剧了Thencameasequenceofeventsthatjustratchetedupthetensions东西方之间的紧张关系betweenEastandWestverydramatically.FleetEx83是美国在北太平洋FIeetEx,83wasaverylargeUSnavalexercise与苏联领土接壤地区举♥行♥的一次大规模海军演习inapartoftheNorthPacificOceanthatsboundedbySovietterritory.美国的目的是向苏联证明TheUSintentwastodemo
45、nstratetotheSovietUnion,“我们甚至可以在你家后院行动你也对此无能为力”Wecanoperateeveninyourbackyard.Youcantdoanythingaboutit.”演习期间美国海军战机飞越了苏联领土Duringtheexercise,USNavyfightersoverflewSovietterritory千岛群岛intheKurilIslands.那里是他们弹道导弹核潜艇的秘密藏身之处Itwasasecrethidingplacefortheirnuclearballisticmissilesubmarines,穿越这片领空可被视为战争行为andp
46、enetratingairspacecanbedeemedanactofwar.千岛群岛上有一个米格23战斗机甚地ThereisaMiG-23fighterbaseontheKurilIslands,苏联人始终没有准许他们的战斗机起飞andtheSovietsneverlaunchtheirfighters.他们看起来很无能Theylookedincompetent.莫斯科的领导层大发雷霆跟他们说TheleadershipinMoscowcrackedthewhiponthemandsaid,“你们这些家伙最好表现得专业点”Youguysbettergetyouracttogether.在接下来的几个月里Andoverthenextcoupleofmonths,他们开始驾驶战斗机theystartedmassivefighterreactions对所有侦察机进行大规模反击toallofthesereconnaissanceaircraft.挑衅性越来越强Increasinglyprovocative,他们从侦察机后方进行射击wheretheyweregettingintofiri
